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Excess ReturnsNov 12

An AI Bubble Could Hit Stocks. Inflation Could Hit Bonds. How Do You Diversify and Keep Both?

AI summary The "End of Either Or" philosophy in portfolio construction challenges the traditional constraint of choosing between core assets and diversifiers. By utilizing return stacking, investors can maintain exposure to core equities and bonds while layering on uncorrelated return…

Return Stacking
Cliff Asness
Managed Futures

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Eurodollar UniversityNov 12

Baby Food Prices Just Revealed a Dark Truth About the U.S. Economy

AI summary The current affordability crisis stems from a disconnect between stagnant household incomes and surging costs for essential goods like baby formula, energy, and housing. Rather than indicating a resilient economy, these price hikes trigger demand destruction, forcing families to…

Demand Destruction
Yield Curve
TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities)

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Bloomberg TelevisionNov 12

Ruchir Sharma on AI Bubble Risks, Opportunities in India

AI summary The global economy faces significant risks as the AI-driven market bubble becomes increasingly fragile under the pressure of rising interest rates and massive fiscal deficits. The US economy currently relies heavily on the "wealth effect," where stock market gains fuel consumer…

AI bubble
CapEx
Wealth effect

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Council on Foreign RelationsNov 12

The State of U.S. Economics with Fed's Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman

AI summary Economic growth has gained momentum, yet persistent inflation necessitates a shift in monetary policy focus toward price stability. While labor markets have stabilized, inflationary pressures—exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rapid AI-related capital…

FOMC
Basel III
PCE

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David Lin Nov 12

Bankruptcy Wave, Collapse Of Tech: Rosenberg Vs. Bianco On AI Bubble, Fed Hikes

AI summary The bond market, inflation trajectory, and the economic sustainability of the AI boom define the current financial landscape. Jim Bianco and David Rosenberg agree that bonds offer significant value at current 5% yields, serving as a core portfolio anchor. However, they diverge…

CPI (Consumer Price Index)
FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee)
MOVE Index

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Bianco ResearchNov 12

110% Chance of Fed Rate Hikes, Jensen Huang’s Exit & Why 7% Returns Are the New Reality

AI summary The Federal Reserve’s persistent hawkish stance remains the primary driver of current market volatility, as officials prioritize combating core inflation that continues to trend away from the 2% target. Jim Bianco, head of Bianco Research, notes that the bond market has shifted…