Excess Returns

Private Equity Chased Software. Big Tech Is Chasing AI. Dan Rasmussen on If They Are Making the Same Mistake Twice

Only 2.7% Beat the S&P for 20 Years | Ian Cassel on What Elite Stock Pickers Do Differently

Successful microcap investing requires a disciplined framework centered on five core skills: identifying, analyzing, buying, selling, and holding. Investors must cultivate "active patience," the ability to wait for high-conviction opportunities rather than chasing market noise. Survival in this volatile asset class dep...

The Rally is Broadening. The Earnings Growth Isn't. Liz Ann Sonders on Which Breaks First

The current economic landscape demands a departure from linear cycle thinking, as sectoral recessions and expansions create a more unstable, rotational market environment. Moving beyond the "Great Moderation," investors now face increased inflation volatility and a breakdown in traditional stock-bond diversification, n...

We Asked Andy Constan What Happens If AI Funding Breaks Before the Thesis — And if Warsh Blinks

Market regimes are currently driven by strong productivity growth and significant government debt issuance, which push real yields higher despite high equity valuations. AI-driven capital expenditure relies on a "hamburger thesis," where companies utilize circular financing to build data centers, potentially creating a...

We Asked Value Legend Bob Robotti Why the Real AI Trade Isn't AI — And Why Passive Helps Stock Pickers

Jim Paulsen Sees a Growth Scare Coming | The 34 Charts That Make Him Cautious

We Asked T. Rowe's $8 Billion Tech Manager Why We Are in 1998 — And Why Software Is in Trouble

David Rosenberg and Rich Bernstein on What Ends the AI Trade — And What They Own Instead

Current market dynamics reflect a hyper-speculative environment driven by AI-related capital concentration, echoing the imbalances seen during the late 1990s tech bubble. Strategists Richard Bernstein and David Rosenberg argue that while the Federal Reserve faces pressure to hike rates based on traditional models, unde...

4% Inflation. Stretched Valuations. Why Is the Market Still Risk-On? | Tian Yang

Macroeconomic analysis requires a first-principles approach that prioritizes causal sequencing over static data models. Leading indicators, such as building permits or order books, provide predictive value by tracking the logical progression of economic activity rather than relying on lagging coincident data. Current m...

The Biggest Leak in Finance | Brent Donnelly on Why You're Probably Too Bearish

A $20B Blowup. A War-Sized AI Bet. Was the Bottom Just a Margin Call? | Last Call

The Government Will Own It | Ben Hunt on World War AI

He Called It the Worst Chart Imaginable. Then He Bought It | Rupert Mitchell on Cracks in the Mag 7

The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Robert Hagstrom on What Wall Street Gets Wrong About Risk

Even God Would Be Fired | Wes Gray on Bubbles, AI Valuations and Why Size Was Never the Edge

Not a Time for Big Bets | Aahan Menon on What 60 Years of Regime Data Says About Today’s Market

We Asked the Man Who Mapped the AI Economy If the Boom Is Real — And Who Keeps the Money

It Only Happens at Bottoms | Andy Constan on the Options Extreme That Showed Up at the Highs

Jack Schwager on Timeless Lessons from Elite Traders

he Recession the Unemployment Rate Can't See | Eric Pachman on the Data Beneath the Jobs Report