4% Inflation. Stretched Valuations. Why Is the Market Still Risk-On? | Tian Yang

Macroeconomic analysis requires a first-principles approach that prioritizes causal sequencing over static data models. Leading indicators, such as building permits or order books, provide predictive value by tracking the logical progression of economic activity rather than relying on lagging coincident data. Current market resilience stems from a "dis-saving" environment where both corporations and households prioritize spending, though this loop remains vulnerable to shifts in AI capital expenditure. While traditional recession signals have been distorted by post-pandemic fiscal dominance, the focus remains on identifying second-order impacts like policy changes and cash settlement mechanisms. Tian Yang, Head of Research at Varied Perception, emphasizes that successful investing involves blending fundamental analysis with an understanding of market participants' constraints, ultimately aiming to minimize errors rather than chasing winners in a bifurcated, AI-driven economy.