Dan Rasmussen, founder and managing partner of Verdad Advisers and author of The Humble Investor, joins Kai Wu to examine the unraveling of private equity, the rise of private credit, and how AI is reshaping software, labor, and the economics of technology investing. They also explore the massive AI CapEx boom, why value investing has struggled in the intangible-heavy U.S. market, the unusual opportunity in Japanese small caps, and how investors can quantify intangible value in biotech.

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Topics covered:

Why private equity became a consensus trade and why exits are now clogged
How leverage and high debt costs threaten private equity returns
What publicly traded private equity funds reveal about true volatility and NAV discounts
How private equity shifted from old-economy buyouts into software and healthcare technology
Why AI may have erased code as a software moat while strengthening other intangible advantages
How ARR lending helped private credit finance software buyouts and created an obsolescence mismatch
What AI is doing to hiring, junior roles, productivity and the composition of work
Why the AI CapEx boom may be a crowded, path-dependent overinvestment cycle
Why traditional value metrics work better in Japan than in the intangible-heavy U.S.
How Tokyo Stock Exchange reforms, buybacks and dividends can unlock value in Japanese small caps
How R&D spend, specialist ownership and short interest can help quantify biotech value

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
04:03 Why private equity's debt burden changes the equity math
09:24 How private equity became a software momentum trade
13:29 Why code may no longer be a durable software moat
17:48 How private credit enabled software buyouts through ARR lending
23:56 AI productivity, jobs and why displacement is slower than expected
30:23 Why the AI CapEx boom may be the market's most crowded risk
34:29 Rational overinvestment, leverage and the timing risk in AI
38:46 Why consumers may capture more of AI's value than investors
44:07 Japan's below-book-value reform and the return of old-school value
51:03 Quantifying biotech value with R&D, specialist ownership and short interest
55:08 Dan's non-consensus views on private markets and Japan

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https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Private Equity Chased Software. Big Tech Is Chasing AI. Dan Rasmussen on If They Are Making the Same Mistake Twice

Excess Returns

Private Equity Chased Software. Big Tech Is Chasing AI. Dan Rasmussen on If They Are Making the Same Mistake Twice