Kevin Muir of The MacroTourist joins Matt Zeigler to break down the bond market, Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks, the Treasury General Account, AI-driven earnings growth, leveraged ETF risk, gold and the U.S.-Canada trade fight. Kevin explains why rising long-term yields may be less surprising than investors think, how the AI capex boom can inflate earnings before costs show up, and why leveraged ETFs and policy uncertainty could make markets more fragile.

Kevin Muir on X
https://x.com/kevinmuir

The MacroTourist
https://themacrotourist.com

Topics covered

Why stronger nominal GDP, large fiscal deficits and record corporate issuance are pressuring long-term Treasury yields
How Scott Bessent's Treasury liquidity buybacks work and why investors are comparing them with QE and Operation Twist
How replacing long-dated Treasuries with T-bills could ultimately force reserve management purchases by the Federal Reserve
Why the Treasury General Account matters for liquidity and why attempts to manage the yield curve can distort market signals
Jim Chanos's "earnings bubble" argument and how massive AI data-center capex can boost current earnings while costs are amortized
Why stock prices can fall before forward earnings estimates roll over, and why retail investors may have an advantage over institutions
How daily-reset leveraged ETFs create reflexive buying and selling and could amplify a semiconductor or single-stock selloff
Why Kevin is bullish on gold again, the role of People's Bank of China demand, and how he combines fundamentals with technical signals
Why platinum below production cost caught his attention and what rolling mini-bubbles in gold, silver and AI say about investor psychology
What 2025 U.S.-Canada trade data says about autos, oil and gas, manufacturing, tariffs and the economic cost of policy uncertainty

Timestamps

00:00 Intro
06:31 Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks and the bond market
10:39 How T-bill issuance could lead to debt monetization
18:25 The AI capex boom and the "earnings bubble"
22:27 The giant bet embedded in accelerating AI earnings
27:37 Why leveraged ETFs are changing market structure
32:00 How forced ETF unwinds can amplify a selloff
36:41 Why Kevin is bullish on gold again
41:57 Platinum, production costs and the precious metals trade
46:08 Sentiment extremes and why popular trades get dangerous
51:00 Globalization, manufacturing and America's distribution problem
55:00 Why oil and gas dominate the U.S.-Canada trade deficit
59:00 How tariff uncertainty can deter U.S. manufacturing investment
01:03:10 The trade math Kevin wants investors to see

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No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

The Profits Come Now. The Costs Come Later. Kevin Muir on Whether AI Earnings Are the Bubble

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The Profits Come Now. The Costs Come Later. Kevin Muir on Whether AI Earnings Are the Bubble