Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Matt Zeigler to explain how surging AI capital spending, mega-cap share issuance and expensive U.S. technology stocks could reshape global equity leadership. They discuss the case for equal-weight stocks, energy equities, gold, UK small caps, Uzbekistan and Turkey, along with the risk that a surprise Federal Reserve hike could trigger a broader unwind in leveraged markets.

Rupert Mitchell on X
https://x.com/SquirrelMacro

Blind Squirrel Macro
https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com

Topics covered

Why the S&P 500 versus the rest of the world remains Rupert's chart of truth
How the Bushy portfolio uses international equities, gold, commodities and hedges as an alternative to a traditional 60/40 portfolio
Why positive stock-bond correlation has weakened the diversification case for long-duration bonds
How AI data center spending, mega IPOs and new share issuance could reverse the buyback-driven de-equitization of U.S. markets
Why Rupert is long the equal-weight S&P 500 and short the Nasdaq 100 as market leadership broadens
How China's growing power in oil markets may create a price collar that supports energy producers, refiners, midstream companies and offshore services
What a surprise Federal Reserve hike or death shot could mean for technology stocks, private credit, private equity and leveraged risk assets
Why deeply discounted UK small and mid-cap stocks may benefit from buybacks, takeovers, pension capital and investment trust activism
The opportunity in Uzbekistan's privatization program and the role of Templeton in improving governance
Why Turkey's inflation-tested companies, strategic geography and cheap valuations may offer an attractive emerging-market setup

Timestamps

00:00 Intro
04:00 Bushy portfolio changes across energy, commodities and precious metals
08:54 How AI capital spending and equity issuance threaten the buyback era
13:00 Equal-weight valuations and the long RSP, short QQQ trade
17:02 China's oil price collar and the energy equity re-rating
22:18 The Fed death shot and the danger of an unpriced hike
30:06 Peak populism and the historic valuation gap in UK equities
34:10 M&A, pension capital and UK investment trusts
38:50 Uzbekistan's privatization opportunity
43:39 Turkish equities, inflation and geopolitical leverage
49:13 Why stress-tested businesses may offer better value
53:39 Blind Squirrel Macro and Benny and the Squirrel

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

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