We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.
The AI-driven technology boom is fundamentally reshaping the economic trajectories of China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan by acting as a powerful productivity and nominal growth catalyst. While Taiwan experiences a volume-driven expansion in its semiconductor-heavy economy, Korea benefits from a significant positive terms-...
The "tripolar world" thesis—centered on regional integration across Asia, Europe, and the Americas—combined with an unprecedented "spending super cycle" in AI, defense, and climate, is fueling a global growth long cycle extending through 2030. Despite pervasive bearish sentiment and geopolitical volatility, global earn...
Global oil markets face an unprecedented refined product crisis driven by supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Oil market researcher Rory Johnston highlights that while crude prices remain elevated, the real pressure lies in record-high diesel crack spreads caused by the loss of critical re...
AI serves as a transformative tool for financial research by democratizing coding, allowing users to translate natural language into functional scripts. Effective integration requires a structured approach centered on six core principles: leveraging AI for programming, utilizing the CLEAR prompt template (Context, Leng...
The US economy currently operates as a "full employment" system characterized by low labor market churn and a "low-hire, low-fire" dynamic, which complicates traditional job-finding metrics. While aggregate growth remains stable, a two-tier, K-shaped economy persists: asset-rich households and businesses leverage debt ...
The global macro landscape is undergoing a structural shift driven by the Federal Reserve's evolving leadership and a massive, AI-fueled capital expenditure cycle. Fed Chair Warsh functions as an "owl," prioritizing political optimization over rigid model-based guidance, which complicates market expectations. Meanwhile...
Global economic systems are undergoing a profound transition from neoliberal globalization toward a model of "national market liberalism," characterized by domestic deregulation and mercantilist competition. This shift is driven by the geopolitical and economic rise of China, which has disrupted Western hegemony and fo...
The traditional business cycle is fading as technological advancements, particularly AI, reduce economic friction and fundamentally shift the labor-capital dynamic. AI acts as the final layer of friction removal by replacing human cognition, potentially leading to 10% unemployment in the 2030s as knowledge work faces s...
The neoliberal economic paradigm, which dominated global policy for decades, has failed to address rising inequality, stagnant growth, and climate instability, necessitating a shift toward "Market Humanism." This new framework redefines the economy as an evolutionary system driven by social cooperation rather than hype...
The US economy’s sustained growth stems from a long-term localization trend, where automation makes domestic production more efficient than outsourcing, a shift predating the current AI boom. This industrial reinvestment, bolstered by tariffs and national security concerns, drives significant capital expenditure in man...
U.S. economic resilience persists despite global geopolitical tensions, driven largely by an unprecedented AI-related capital expenditure boom. While this transition creates short-term inflationary pressure through increased demand for memory chips and energy, it does not stem from labor market overheating, as wage inf...
The dollar’s history is not a narrative of American monetary sovereignty, but rather a centuries-long evolution of global credit and banking practices. Originating from 16th-century Bohemian silver coins known as "thalers," the dollar functioned as an international currency long before the United States adopted it. The...
Applying machine learning and AI to financial trading presents unique challenges compared to general business applications, primarily due to low signal-to-noise ratios, limited historical data, and the necessity for rigorous, non-stationary time series analysis. Stefan Jansen, founder of Applied AI, emphasizes that suc...
Artificial intelligence represents a transformative general-purpose technology that makes thinking and knowledge significantly cheaper, potentially disrupting labor markets and creating profound societal challenges regarding accountability and corporate governance. While energy markets remain surprisingly resilient des...
Global macro trading requires navigating a post-QE landscape where traditional heuristics often fail. Dr. Dirk Willer, Global Head of Macro and Asset Allocation at Citi Research, emphasizes that traders must prioritize proximity to the source of market shocks while maintaining disciplined entry and exit strategies. His...
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