We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.
Japan’s socioeconomic system represents a robust model of capitalism that effectively optimizes societal outcomes, contrary to persistent "lost decade" narratives. The current administration drives this momentum through proactive industrial policies, including the strategic opening of defense exports and a push toward ...
France faces a deepening political and fiscal crisis as the upcoming presidential and general elections reveal a volatile landscape. The current market volatility stems less from specific budget details than from the rising probability of a runoff between Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Shahin Vallée, a former ad...
Global trade and energy security are undergoing a fundamental shift as the post-WWII era of US-led globalization gives way to a fragmented, multipolar landscape. Revisionist powers now exploit low-cost, asymmetric technologies—such as autonomous underwater vehicles and drone swarms—to disrupt critical maritime chokepoi...
Market participants frequently fall prey to systematic psychological biases, leading to predictable patterns of overreaction, underreaction, and misreaction. Professor Alex Edmans of the London Business School argues that these errors—ranging from irrational exuberance in bubbles to the failure to value intangible asse...
The AI-driven technology boom is fundamentally reshaping the economic trajectories of China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan by acting as a powerful productivity and nominal growth catalyst. While Taiwan experiences a volume-driven expansion in its semiconductor-heavy economy, Korea benefits from a significant positive terms-...
The "tripolar world" thesis—centered on regional integration across Asia, Europe, and the Americas—combined with an unprecedented "spending super cycle" in AI, defense, and climate, is fueling a global growth long cycle extending through 2030. Despite pervasive bearish sentiment and geopolitical volatility, global earn...
Global oil markets face an unprecedented refined product crisis driven by supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Oil market researcher Rory Johnston highlights that while crude prices remain elevated, the real pressure lies in record-high diesel crack spreads caused by the loss of critical re...
AI serves as a transformative tool for financial research by democratizing coding, allowing users to translate natural language into functional scripts. Effective integration requires a structured approach centered on six core principles: leveraging AI for programming, utilizing the CLEAR prompt template (Context, Leng...
The US economy currently operates as a "full employment" system characterized by low labor market churn and a "low-hire, low-fire" dynamic, which complicates traditional job-finding metrics. While aggregate growth remains stable, a two-tier, K-shaped economy persists: asset-rich households and businesses leverage debt ...
The global macro landscape is undergoing a structural shift driven by the Federal Reserve's evolving leadership and a massive, AI-fueled capital expenditure cycle. Fed Chair Warsh functions as an "owl," prioritizing political optimization over rigid model-based guidance, which complicates market expectations. Meanwhile...
Global economic systems are undergoing a profound transition from neoliberal globalization toward a model of "national market liberalism," characterized by domestic deregulation and mercantilist competition. This shift is driven by the geopolitical and economic rise of China, which has disrupted Western hegemony and fo...
The traditional business cycle is fading as technological advancements, particularly AI, reduce economic friction and fundamentally shift the labor-capital dynamic. AI acts as the final layer of friction removal by replacing human cognition, potentially leading to 10% unemployment in the 2030s as knowledge work faces s...
The neoliberal economic paradigm, which dominated global policy for decades, has failed to address rising inequality, stagnant growth, and climate instability, necessitating a shift toward "Market Humanism." This new framework redefines the economy as an evolutionary system driven by social cooperation rather than hype...
The US economy’s sustained growth stems from a long-term localization trend, where automation makes domestic production more efficient than outsourcing, a shift predating the current AI boom. This industrial reinvestment, bolstered by tariffs and national security concerns, drives significant capital expenditure in man...
U.S. economic resilience persists despite global geopolitical tensions, driven largely by an unprecedented AI-related capital expenditure boom. While this transition creates short-term inflationary pressure through increased demand for memory chips and energy, it does not stem from labor market overheating, as wage inf...
The dollar’s history is not a narrative of American monetary sovereignty, but rather a centuries-long evolution of global credit and banking practices. Originating from 16th-century Bohemian silver coins known as "thalers," the dollar functioned as an international currency long before the United States adopted it. The...
Applying machine learning and AI to financial trading presents unique challenges compared to general business applications, primarily due to low signal-to-noise ratios, limited historical data, and the necessity for rigorous, non-stationary time series analysis. Stefan Jansen, founder of Applied AI, emphasizes that suc...
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