Ep. 376: Rory Johnston on $100 Oil, the Refined Product Crisis, and China's Swing Power

Global oil markets face an unprecedented refined product crisis driven by supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Oil market researcher Rory Johnston highlights that while crude prices remain elevated, the real pressure lies in record-high diesel crack spreads caused by the loss of critical refining capacity and rerouted trade flows. China has emerged as a pivotal, if unconventional, market manager, significantly reducing crude imports to mitigate global economic instability. Meanwhile, the conflict-driven targeting of Russian energy infrastructure and shifting geopolitical alignments—such as U.S. equity stakes in Venezuelan oil—further complicate supply security. These structural shifts force producers like Canada to seek westward pipeline expansion to bypass an increasingly volatile and hostile U.S. market, marking a fundamental realignment in global energy trade dynamics.