At Any Rate

Global FX: Uneasy calm

Global Rates: French spreads in focus again into the October ECB meeting

Global FX: GBP FX - UK Budget Preview

The upcoming UK budget serves as a critical clearing event for sterling, with market expectations centered on approximately 15 billion in fiscal headroom. A base case outcome, supported by anticipated tax measures such as raising the bank surcharge to 8%, likely triggers a sterling rally as fiscal risk premiums compres...

EM Fixed Income: Swimming upstream after Bangkok

Emerging market fundamentals remain resilient despite a challenging global backdrop characterized by elevated oil prices, persistent inflation, and rising U.S. Treasury yields. While broad beta plays face pressure from tight valuations and duration risks, a selective approach focusing on country-specific catalysts and ...

Global Rates: DM inflation, from mixed bag to common thread

Global inflation markets are exhibiting a rare convergence of themes across the U.S., U.K., and Europe, characterized by firming front-end inflation pricing. Energy costs remain the primary driver, though transmission mechanisms vary; the U.K. faces mechanical increases in domestic energy bills, while the U.S. experien...

Global FX: US policy watch, euro/ CEE bloc lagging, NOK and GBP resilience

Global currency markets currently favor pro-cyclical carry strategies, which remain the top-performing approach year-to-date despite recent risk sentiment fluctuations. A high-conviction theme involves utilizing the Euro as a funding currency, as its current valuation fails to fully reflect widening OAT spreads. While ...

Global Commodities: It costs a lot

Intensifying Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions and logistical constraints are driving significant divergence across commodity markets heading into 2027. While copper prices are projected to exceed $15,000 per metric ton due to low global inventories and sustained Chinese demand, aluminum faces a sharp transition fro...

Global Rates: Sovereign spreads, euro area rate vol and UK rates into the Budget

Sovereign spreads in Europe have stabilized following a period of volatility driven by technical washouts and political noise, particularly in France. While German spreads have found a steady state around 140 basis points, the sensitivity of higher-debt sovereigns to yield movements suggests that acute technical pressu...

EM Fixed Income: Taking stock amid some market consolidation

Emerging market fixed income assets show signs of stabilization since October, though persistent macro and geopolitical uncertainties remain. Rising yields increasingly impact growth perceptions, while energy transport costs—now reaching $130–$140 per barrel in real terms—pose significant risks to global economic stabi...

US Rates - US CPI & TIPS: On firmer footing

The September US CPI inflation report reveals a firming trend and potential re-acceleration of price pressures, marking a significant departure from recent downside surprises. Core CPI reached 0.33%, driven by broad-based increases rather than isolated components like wireless services. Core goods inflation exhibits pe...

Global Commodities: Dancing in the Dark

Global energy markets are navigating significant volatility as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East disrupt liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil product shipping. While LNG vessel exits through the Strait of Hormuz recently reached a wartime high of 30% utilization, loading rates have plummeted to 5% due to a shorta...

Global FX: Contemplating a rotation amongst funders; outlook for BRL

Brazil’s recent election results have shifted market sentiment, with Jair Bolsonaro’s stronger-than-expected performance fueling optimism for fiscal reform and reinforcing the BRL and COP as primary carry trade vehicles. Meanwhile, persistent volatility in French OAT spreads keeps the Euro vulnerable, prompting a poten...

EM Fixed Income: Enduring the heat, trying not to get burned

Rising US Treasury yields and elevated energy prices continue to pressure emerging market (EM) assets, forcing a shift toward more selective, high-carry strategies. While global growth remains resilient, market participants are increasingly repricing the distribution of growth outcomes, resulting in curve steepening ac...

In Focus: Critical Chemicals

Chemicals serve as the foundational "mother of all industries," yet their supply chain opacity and systemic importance create significant national security vulnerabilities. While critical minerals have gained strategic attention, chemicals remain a neglected blind spot despite their role in gating essential sectors lik...

Global Commodities: The final 11%

Middle East oil exports have recovered to 89% of pre-war levels, yet Brent crude prices remain resilient near $100 per barrel due to constrained refined product supplies and persistent diesel market uncertainty. Greg Shearer, head of Base and Precious Metals Research at J.P. Morgan, identifies a bullish outlook for cop...

Global FX: Spilled OATs, Payrolls, Risks to carry

FX markets are navigating a shift as US payroll data signals a cooling labor market, prompting USD consolidation rather than a broad sell-off, supported by resilient GDP and consumption metrics. Widening French OAT spreads have introduced new volatility, spilling over into currency markets and challenging the Euro’s st...

Global Rates: Mixed themes in European rates – Euro area sovereign spreads and France, seasonality in DM rates, cross-currency basis update and UK rate markets

Euro area sovereign spreads, particularly in France, have experienced significant widening driven by technical factors and position liquidations rather than fundamental shifts in fiscal or political policy. While French spreads appear stretched relative to macroeconomic fundamentals, volatility remains elevated amid on...

Global Rates - Increasing risk of CTD switches in UST and Eurex futures

Rising yields and heightened market volatility are fundamentally altering the dynamics of futures Cheapest-to-Deliver (CTD) switches across US and Eurex markets. As yields approach the 6% conversion factor used in US Treasury futures, bonds are becoming increasingly "equi-cheap," challenging traditional hedging behavio...

Global Commodities: Day 31 and beyond

European natural gas prices remain volatile, driven by geopolitical tensions and significant disparities in storage levels across the continent. While the EU average storage sits at 70%, Germany’s 57% level compared to Italy’s 87% creates an unprecedented gap that threatens winter price stability. Meanwhile, Qatari LNG...

Global FX: US diesel ban, dollar view, G10 central banks

The potential U.S. diesel export ban creates significant currency volatility, particularly for emerging market economies like Chile and Peru, which rely heavily on U.S. imports. While the immediate impact affects these vulnerable nations, the broader global market may reassign contracts within months, mitigating long-t...