Middle East oil exports have recovered to 89% of pre-war levels, yet Brent crude prices remain resilient near $100 per barrel due to constrained refined product supplies and persistent diesel market uncertainty. Greg Shearer, head of Base and Precious Metals Research at J.P. Morgan, identifies a bullish outlook for copper driven by a "tug of war" between U.S. tariffs and a significant supply pull from China, where social inventories are critically low. Supply risks are further exacerbated by potential diesel bans in Chile affecting 70% of its mining fuel and El Niño-related weather disruptions. Gold demonstrates remarkable resilience, decoupling from its historical inverse relationship with real yields as global ETF holdings increased by 5% since July. While the market remains range-bound near term, structural dip buyers provide a floor at $4,000 per ounce, with a projected rebound toward $5,000 by late 2027 as the Federal Reserve eventually pivots away from rate hikes.
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