The Council on Foreign Relations is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members, government officials, business executives, journalists, educators and students, civic and religious leaders, and other interested citizens in order to help them better understand the world and the foreign policy choices facing the United States and other countries.
The Carter Doctrine, originally established to protect oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, has evolved significantly as global energy markets shift from reliance on Middle Eastern supply to a more complex, fragmented landscape. The rise of U.S. shale production has transformed the nation into a major exporter, yet ...
Instability in the Strait of Hormuz highlights the vulnerability of global energy systems, where Iran leverages geographic bottlenecks to exert coercive power without requiring physical closure. While Gulf states pursue redundancy through bypass pipelines, these workarounds merely shift the bottleneck and increase depe...
Global central banks face unprecedented challenges as they navigate inflationary pressures, communication dilemmas, and the integration of artificial intelligence into economic forecasting. Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, argues that while transparency is essential for ancho...
Global bond yields are surging as markets reprice fiscal sustainability risks and the massive capital expenditure demands of the AI infrastructure build-out. While AI promises long-term productivity gains, it simultaneously shifts economic output toward capital income, complicating tax collection and increasing the fis...
Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, examines the current U.S. economic landscape, characterized by persistent inflation and surprising resilience. Despite elevated interest rates, consumer spending remains robust, supported by a strong labor market and significant capital investment in AI infra...
The war in Ukraine and the evolving security landscape of Europe define the current geopolitical challenges facing Norway and Finland. Despite battlefield stalemates and the urgent need for sustained Western financial and military aid, Ukraine remains committed to sovereignty, rejecting territorial concessions. The tra...
The recent summit between President Trump and President Xi prioritized symbolic pageantry over substantive policy outcomes, falling short of even modest expectations. While the meeting maintained a veneer of stability, structural tensions remain unresolved, particularly regarding AI competition, Taiwan’s security, and ...
Somaliland, a self-governing nation since 1991, seeks formal international recognition to unlock its economic potential and solidify its role as a critical regional security partner. President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi asserts that the country fulfills all Montevideo Convention criteria for statehood, yet remains ex...
The recent state visit of Chinese leader Xi Jinping to Washington, D.C., signals a shift in the U.S.-China strategic dynamic, characterized by a high degree of presidential deference and a focus on "constructive strategic stability." Despite frequent high-level meetings, significant tensions persist regarding China's t...
President Trump’s recent UN General Assembly address signaled a shift toward a more isolationist, domestically focused foreign policy, marked by a notable absence of substantive engagement with major global powers like China and European allies. The speech’s low-energy delivery relied on familiar tropes, including triu...
The ongoing conflict with Iran has reached a deep, persistent stalemate where both the United States and the Iranian regime miscalculate the other's resilience. While unprecedented economic pressure and the blockade of Iranian oil have devastated the country's economy, the regime maintains control through internal forc...
CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s recent unannounced visit to Moscow signals a complex, ambiguous shift in U.S.-Russia relations, balancing potential diplomatic initiatives against the need to project strength. While some interpret the trip as a warning against testing NATO’s Article 5 or challenging U.S. resolve, others v...
The U.S.-led order in the Middle East is collapsing as the ongoing conflict with Iran enters a new phase defined by economic warfare rather than direct military strikes. Despite the U.S. administration's shift toward "Operation Economic Outcast" to force regime change, the Iranian leadership remains resilient, having e...
The AI-driven investment boom is creating significant volatility in the U.S. bond market, fueled by massive corporate debt issuance to fund data center infrastructure. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant’s attempt to manage rising long-term yields through buybacks faces skepticism, as fiscal deficits and policy uncertainty...
The recent U.S.-China summit prioritized symbolism over substantive policy breakthroughs, serving primarily to stabilize a fragile detente rather than resolve structural conflicts. This relationship remains heavily influenced by China's leverage over the rare earth minerals supply chain, which effectively ended last ye...
The panel analyzes the global energy market disruption following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, exploring the unpreparedness for this contingency and its macroeconomic and geopolitical implications. Panelists examine the ineffectiveness of strategic oil stockpile releases and government-backed insurance policies ...
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