How Will the Iran War End?

The ongoing conflict with Iran has reached a deep, persistent stalemate where both the United States and the Iranian regime miscalculate the other's resilience. While unprecedented economic pressure and the blockade of Iranian oil have devastated the country's economy, the regime maintains control through internal force rather than relying on public support. The U.S. strategy lacks a clear, singular objective, oscillating between goals like securing the Strait of Hormuz and addressing nuclear proliferation. Experts argue that economic sanctions, while painful, have failed to force capitulation or regime collapse, mirroring historical patterns seen in Iraq. Meanwhile, Iran’s regional influence through proxies is significantly diminished, particularly with Hezbollah’s weakened status. A sustainable resolution remains elusive, as both sides appear trapped in a cycle of escalating costs and misaligned strategic expectations.