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Howard Marks, co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital, evaluates current market volatility and the profound uncertainty surrounding artificial intelligence. He characterizes AI as a uniquely unpredictable technological shift, making it difficult to forecast long-term profitability or identify specific winners. Wh...
Government attempts to override economic laws through Treasury buybacks offer only cosmetic relief, failing to address the root causes of rising interest rates such as persistent inflation, lack of fiscal discipline, and massive capital demand from AI infrastructure. The U.S. currently operates with unsustainable defic...
Higher interest rates and persistent inflation have created a regime change in the credit markets, shifting the environment from easy lending to one defined by dispersion and distress. While high-income consumers remain resilient, lower-income segments face significant pressure from inflation, creating a K-shaped econo...
Market cycles are driven primarily by human psychology, causing asset prices to fluctuate wildly around a steady trend line of intrinsic value. Successful investing requires a contrarian approach, acting against the herd during periods of excessive optimism or pessimism. While AI serves as a powerful mentor and data-pr...
Howard Marks explores the evolution and potential risks within the private credit market, particularly direct lending. He pinpoints key historical developments that shaped the credit sector, including the acceptance of non-investment grade debt, the rise of leveraged buyouts, and the expansion of direct lending to indi...
The podcast explores the increasing dispersion in the US economy and financial markets, where headline metrics fail to reflect underlying complexities. It highlights the K-shaped recovery, with high-income consumers driving spending while lower-income groups struggle with inflation and rising debt. The conversation emp...
The European economic backdrop and outlook for the region's credit markets in 2026 are examined, with a focus on both private and liquid credit. Despite a less optimistic backdrop compared to the U.S., European companies have demonstrated conservative balance sheet management, leading to relatively low default rates. S...
In this memo, Howard Marks explores the possibility of an AI bubble, drawing parallels to historical bubbles like the railroad boom and the internet bubble. He discusses the potential benefits of bubbles in driving technological progress, distinguishing between "inflection bubbles" and "mean reversion bubbles." Marks e...
This Oaktree podcast features a fireside chat with Howard Marks, moderated by Harry Whitelaw, celebrating the 35th anniversary of Marks' memos. The discussion begins with the origins of the memos in 1990, highlighting Marks' focus on clarity and simplicity in his writing. They discuss the impact of the "bubble.com" mem...
The Money Maze Podcast features an interview with Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital, where he shares insights on investing, market cycles, and risk management, drawing from his extensive experience in the finance industry. Marks discusses his early influences, including his accounting background and experienc...
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