There’s plenty of talk about a possible settlement in US-China relations, but Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing urges caution. Ahead of a call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, he spoke with David Wilder about how a deal might be struck – and why it would fall short of easing the deeper tensions driving the fracturing of the global economy.

Also on the show, with crime rising in Latin American countries once seen as relatively safe, Chief Emerging Markets Economist William Jackson discusses its economic costs and influence on upcoming elections.

Plus, in an exclusive clip from our central bank Drop-In briefing, we look at how the Fed’s latest rate projections compare with ours, and why the Bank of England is growing more sensitive to inflation risks.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

Event: Fracturing in the Age of Trump - New York October 2025
Read: China's Nvidia ban signals strong push for chip self-sufficiency
Read: Counting the cost of crime in Latin America
LatAm Outlook: Slowdown sets the stage for dovish surprises
Watch: Central Bank Drop-In - Unpacking the Fed, ECB and Bank of England September meetings

US-China talks, LatAm’s crime surge and central bank shifts

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

US-China talks, LatAm’s crime surge and central bank shifts