Tariffs are back in the headlines after Donald Trump’s latest announcements – but how much of a threat do these new levies really pose? Could they fuel inflation pressures, and is Trump’s trade policy really bringing manufacturing jobs back?

Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to assess Trump’s tariff threats, explain why Stephen Miran’s call for US rates to be halved doesn’t add up, and examine what’s driving the divergence between inflation in the US and Europe/UK.

Also on the show, Latin America Economist Kimberley Sperrfechter looks at an extraordinary week in Argentina, where markets have steadied after Washington intervened. What drove the Trump administration to act so forcefully, and will the support work?

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

Data: Tariff Impact Model
Read: US Tariff Announcement

Read: Japanese manufacturers starting to shift production to US
Read: Euro-zone inflation risks now to the downside
Drop-In: From bonds to equities – The great pensions switch and its risks
Drop-In: Where is r* heading? Catching up on equilibrium real rates
Drop-In: UK Outlook – More tax rises to add to economy’s woes
Read: Mapping China’s presence in Latin America

Tariffs, rates… and an Argentina rescue

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

Tariffs, rates… and an Argentina rescue