The Fed meets this coming week to decide how much monetary relief the US economy really needs. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing says that, employment data aside, the evidence argues for fewer rate cuts than markets are pricing in. He talks to David Wilder about the health of the economy, whether the surge in AI investment is making a difference, and previews the Bank of England meeting, where the pace of quantitative tightening may be slowed by a still-febrile bond market.

Also on the show, Chief Climate and Commodities Economist David Oxley assesses the oil price outlook in light of the week's geopolitical developments in Qatar and Poland, and ahead of OPEC’s 65th anniversary.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode

US economy is doing better than weak payrolls suggest
No more BoE cuts this year, but rates to fall to 3.00% next year
Labour market slump to prompt BoC to resume cuts
Weak labour demand forces Fed off the sidelines
The economic and market impact of AI
Data: GDP Nowcasts
OPEC at 65: shifting market dynamics expose frailties

US economy pre-Fed health check | Oil prices vs geopolitics

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

US economy pre-Fed health check | Oil prices vs geopolitics