Short, thoughtful and regular takes on recent events in the markets from a variety of perspectives and voices within Morgan Stanley.
Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, discusses the firm's 2026 outlook, which continues their previous forecast of a challenging first half followed by a strong second half, contrary to market consensus. He explains that policy sequencing under the new Trump administration was intentional...
Seth Carpenter and Serena Tang discuss the investment strategy for 2026, highlighting a preference for equities over bonds, particularly U.S. assets, driven by a pro-cyclical policy mix and the focus shifting to asset-specific narratives like AI CapEx investment. They maintain a bullish outlook on U.S. equities, with a...
Serena Tang and Seth Carpenter discuss Morgan Stanley's economic outlook for 2026, focusing on global growth, inflation, and central bank policies. They anticipate a slight slowdown in global growth with varied regional performances: a near-term slowdown followed by a pickup in the US, tepid growth in China due to defl...
Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy, discusses the potential impact of next year's midterm elections on investors, particularly if Democrats gain control of Congress. He notes that recent off-cycle elections suggest Democrats are outperforming expectations, leading prediction ...
This episode of "Thoughts on the Market" features a discussion with Adam Wood, Emmet Kelly, and Lee Simpson from Morgan Stanley's TMT European Conference, focusing on tech disruption and data center investments. The panel explores the shift in perspective on AI, from its potential benefits to concerns about disruption ...
This episode of Thoughts on the Market, recorded live from Morgan Stanley's European TMT Conference, explores whether Europe can keep pace with technology development, focusing on tech diffusion and agentic AI. Paul Walsh leads a discussion with Adam Wood, Emmet Kelly, and Lee Simpson, who provide insights on AI's impa...
Mike Cyprys and Denny Galindo discuss the increasing accessibility of cryptocurrency and its implications for investors. They explore the growing interest in crypto from retail clients, particularly in Bitcoin and stablecoins, and the move by institutional investors into the ETF space following SEC approval of spot Bit...
Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, discusses recent equity market concerns and potential changes. He highlights positive developments in earnings season, including broadening growth and firming pricing power, with the median stock showing its best earnings growth in four years. Despite ...
Matthew Hornbach and Michael Gapen discuss the October FOMC meeting, where the Federal Reserve implemented a 25 basis point rate cut and ended its balance sheet reduction earlier than expected. They highlight the divided opinions within the FOMC, with dissents for both a 50 basis point cut and no cut, indicating a lack...
Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy, discusses the U.S. Supreme Court's hearing on the legality of tariffs implemented by the Trump administration. He explains that while a ruling against the administration could potentially undo a significant portion of the tariff increases, ...
In this episode of Thoughts on the Market, Katie Huberty, Stephen Byrd, and Jeff McMillan delve into the human impact of AI adoption, focusing on how it affects individual workers and the job market. They discuss the balance between fear and excitement surrounding AI, addressing concerns about job losses while highligh...
In this episode of Thoughts on the Market, Katie Huberty, Stephen Byrd, and Jeff McMillan discuss the future of work as AI scales across industries. They analyze the potential earnings impact of AI adoption for S&P 500 companies, highlighting a possible 20% increase in earnings power and a $13 trillion market cap upon ...
Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, discusses recent macro events including the U.S.-China trade meeting and the October Fed meeting. He analyzes the market's response to these events, noting a positive reaction to trade developments and a modest consolidation in equities following the F...
Mia Nagasaka, Head of Japan Financials Research at Morgan Stanley MEFG Securities, discusses Japan's emerging stablecoin market and its potential global impact. She explains that stablecoins, unlike volatile cryptocurrencies, maintain a stable value by being pegged to assets like the yen or US dollar. Japan's recent am...
Ariana Salvatore and Erin Wright discuss the implications of the U.S. government shutdown on healthcare, particularly focusing on the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and its subsidies. They highlight that the shutdown debate is largely centered on whether to extend enhanced ACA subsidies, which are set to expire at the end o...
Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley, discusses the anticipated multi-year increase in global merger and acquisition (M&A) activity. He highlights several factors contributing to this trend, including declining policy uncertainty and interest rates, potential reductions in bank capital req...
Sean Laaman and Terence Flynn discuss the healthcare sector's recent rally, driven by favorable macro conditions and improving policy visibility. They address how biopharma is adapting to tariff and drug pricing dynamics, the impact of looming patent expirations on M&A trends, and the compelling valuations of large-cap...
Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, discusses the current market landscape, focusing on the preliminary U.S.-China trade deal and its implications for equities. He highlights upcoming events such as the Federal Reserve meeting, where a 25 basis point rate cut is expected, along with pote...
Sanjit Singh, a U.S. software analyst at Morgan Stanley, discusses how AI is transforming the software industry and its implications for developers. He explains that while AI coding assistants are increasing productivity and code volume, they are not replacing human developers. Instead, AI is redefining developer roles...
Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley, discusses the debate around elevated capital expenditure in AI technology, addressing concerns that it might show classic warning signs of overbuilding and credit worries. He argues that the AI CapEx cycle has much further to run, citing that most expe...
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