Fed’s Path Uncertain as Key Data Lags

Matthew Hornbach and Michael Gapen discuss the October FOMC meeting, where the Federal Reserve implemented a 25 basis point rate cut and ended its balance sheet reduction earlier than expected. They highlight the divided opinions within the FOMC, with dissents for both a 50 basis point cut and no cut, indicating a lack of consensus on future policy. The conversation also addresses the impact of the ongoing government shutdown on data availability and its potential influence on the Fed's December meeting decision. They explore the tension between strong activity data and a weakening labor market, and how this will shape the Fed's approach to future rate adjustments, particularly looking ahead to 2026.