Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

The Prediction Exchange

Throwing Cold Water on the Blue Wave

Way On Base

The Trump Tornado and Danger in the Dust Bowl

All About Exit Polls

Reasonably Random Thoughts on Polling

Polling accuracy in the modern political landscape hinges on maintaining randomness in survey samples, a challenge complicated by declining response rates and the shift toward cell phone usage. GOP pollster Jon Lerner argues that while some analysts rely on maximalist weighting to force samples to match demographic exp...

Americans Won't Tolerate a Loser

Rate Changes and Coordinated Expenditures

Take Nothing For Granite

Dissuadable Disapprovers?

A MAGA Contest, Southern Cackalacky-Style

Heat Lightning Over the Sunshine State

America's Dairyland or the Progressives' Fairyland?

Wolverines in Sheep's Clothing?

Everybody's Got a Type

American political dynamics currently center on the challenges facing independent candidates in deep-red states like Nebraska and Montana, where historical data suggests they struggle to overcome entrenched partisan loyalties. The Pew Research Center’s 2026 "Beyond Red and Blue" typology provides a granular view of thi...

AZ and the Wild Card Races

The upcoming primary season presents significant organizational and strategic challenges for both major parties. In Maine, Democrats face an unprecedented, unpledged nominating convention, creating a volatile environment for candidates. Meanwhile, Arizona’s political landscape remains highly candidate-driven, with Repu...

The Zig-Zaggy Leftward Lurch

What Americans Say About The American Way

The Ballot Balancing Act

It's Up To You, New York!