The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is an independent nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to strengthening prosperity and human welfare in the global economy through expert analysis and practical policy solutions. The Institute is committed to rigorous, intellectually open, and in-depth study and discussion. It attempts to anticipate emerging issues and present ideas in useful, accessible formats, to inform and shape public debate. Its audience includes government officials and legislators, business and labor leaders, management and staff at international organizations, university-based scholars and their students, experts at other research institutions and nongovernmental organizations, the media, and the public at large.
The global economy navigates a complex landscape defined by geopolitical instability, persistent inflation, and significant fiscal challenges. While AI-driven investments provide a temporary buffer for growth, rising government borrowing rates and ballooning deficits threaten long-term stability. Trade policy remains a...
AI-driven economic transformation hinges on the interplay between technological advancement, domestic adoption, and global trade integration. While China pursues an indigenous, self-reliant AI ecosystem, US models currently maintain a competitive edge on the cost-capability frontier. Future economic outcomes remain hig...
The Geneva Report on the changing structure and challenges of the international financial system highlights the evolving landscape of global economic power. Global imbalances remain significant, driven largely by China’s industrial policy and domestic demand constraints, while the U.S. dollar persists as the central op...
U.S. fiscal deficits and debt are reaching unsustainable levels, with debt-to-GDP ratios projected to hit 120% within a decade. This trajectory is driven by an aging population, rising interest costs, and significant revenue losses from tax cuts. While fiscal adjustments are essential, political polarization and voter ...
Global supply chains have not significantly decoupled from China despite years of US tariffs, as evidenced by persistent reliance on Chinese intermediate inputs routed through third countries like Vietnam and Mexico. Research by Mary Lovely and Christine Wan demonstrates that while direct bilateral trade has dropped, t...
The escalating trade tensions between the United States and Canada center on President Trump’s imposition of tariffs and a series of unconventional demands that threaten long-standing economic integration. Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, observes that while specific d...
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