Edward Chancellor, the distinguished financial historian, author and journalist interviews investors from Marathon Asset Management [Marathon London] about their latest views on the investment landscape. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
The current AI-driven capital expenditure cycle represents a massive, earnings-accretive shift in the tech sector, though it carries significant risks of over-investment and potential commoditization. Tech giants are trapped in a "prisoner's dilemma," forcing them to spend heavily on AI to avoid disruption, leading to ...
Capital cycles drive investment outcomes across Asian markets, where historical patterns of credit-fueled expansion and subsequent correction define long-term performance. Japan’s transition from its 1990s bubble economy to a period of nominal growth and improved corporate governance highlights the necessity of banking...
Passive investing fundamentally alters market dynamics by creating a self-reinforcing loop that distorts valuations and liquidity. Contrary to the "free rider" theory, index funds exert significant price influence because large-cap constituents often exhibit lower liquidity per dollar of free float than smaller compani...
China’s rapid technological ascent is fundamentally disrupting global industries by eroding the capital-based moats of Western incumbents. Emerging Markets Analyst Laura Fyfe highlights how Chinese firms, such as DeepSeek in AI and Unitree in robotics, are delivering high-performance products at a fraction of the cost,...
The current AI-driven capital expenditure cycle exhibits characteristics of a fundamental bubble, where massive, price-agnostic spending by US hyperscalers creates a pervasive, singular thematic across global markets. AI-related capital investment now accounts for a significant portion of US economic growth, while non-...
Market speculation surrounding AI often leads to the mispricing of companies, as investors frequently overreact to potential technological disruption. Historical data, such as the TMT boom, demonstrates that the market struggles to accurately identify secular winners and losers, succeeding only about half the time. Cha...
The aircraft leasing industry is currently undergoing a structural shift driven by supply chain constraints and evolving capital cycle dynamics. Despite robust global demand for air travel, commercial aircraft production remains significantly below 2018 peaks due to persistent manufacturing, labor, and quality control ...
The European aerospace industry, particularly the aircraft engine manufacturing sector, currently benefits from a favorable capital cycle driven by high barriers to entry and persistent supply-side constraints. Ben Slingsby, an analyst for Marathon’s European portfolios, highlights that the industry’s shift toward an o...
The podcast explores the challenges and potential threats facing Software as a Service (SaaS) companies, particularly from the rise of AI and its impact on software development. It draws parallels between the current situation and historical examples like the Jacquard Loom and Warren Buffett's experience in the textile...
The podcast explores lessons from history and the tyranny of the index in investment strategies, particularly in emerging markets. Alex Duffy, Emerging Markets Portfolio Manager at Marathon Asset Management, references the Global Investment Returns Yearbook, emphasizing the cyclicality of equity market returns and caut...
The podcast revisits Marathon Asset Management's 2004 book, Capital Account, focusing on its capital cycle analysis framework and its relevance to current market conditions. Charles Carter, a European portfolio manager at Marathon and contributor to the book, discusses the book's origins and key insights. The conversat...
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