Nomura – The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead – Midterm madness?

The Week Ahead – Time to look out the window

Global markets face a pivotal week as the Fed, ECB, and BOJ prepare for critical policy decisions. While AI-related equity volatility persists, the semiconductor sector remains fundamentally strong due to a significant supply-demand mismatch in memory chips that will likely take years to resolve. Despite concerns regar...

The Week Ahead - A Sticky Situation

Global economic conditions remain characterized by persistent inflation and shifting market dynamics across major regions. In the United States, sticky inflation data, exacerbated by AI-driven capital expenditure, suggests the Federal Reserve will likely maintain current interest rates. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom ex...

The Week Ahead - Special Edition: Assessing EM Sovereign Ratings with Fitch

Emerging market sovereign creditworthiness faces significant pressure from post-pandemic fiscal deterioration and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. While external balances remain a relative strength in North Asia, particularly for economies benefiting from the AI boom, public debt-to-GDP ratios have risen across the...

Understanding Japan - How are Demographics Changing Japan?

Japan’s demographic landscape has reached a critical turning point as the working-age population, defined as those aged 15 and older, has been in decline since 2021. Kyohei Morita, Nomura’s chief Japan economist, identifies these labor shortages as effectively incurable due to peaked domestic participation and slowing ...

The Week Ahead - Mon Dieu!

Global financial markets are navigating rising sovereign bond yields, fueled by structural debt concerns and geopolitical instability. European rates strategist Marine Mazet highlights that French OAT spreads have widened due to a "buyer strike" and hedge fund deleveraging, with minimal expectation of immediate Europea...

The Week Ahead - Blow Up?

Global financial markets face significant volatility driven by fiscal concerns and shifting monetary policy expectations. In the United States, a resilient labor market supports the view that the Federal Reserve will pause in October before a final rate hike in December, even as core PCE inflation shows signs of coolin...

The Week Ahead - Special Episode - Fireside Chat with Dr Catherine L Mann

Financial conditions and their role in shaping monetary policy amidst persistent supply shocks define the current economic landscape. Dr. Catherine Mann of the Bank of England highlights that financial markets often misprice the long-term costs of geopolitical conflicts by over-relying on volatile energy futures curves...

The Week Ahead – Still looking cloudy from the summit

Global markets face heightened volatility as central banks navigate persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions. The US-China summit aims to stabilize relations through trade truce extensions and AI safety dialogues, though significant breakthroughs remain unlikely. US economic data suggests a resilient labor market...

The Week Ahead - A Double Header of Hikes

The Week Ahead - Crunch time for the Fed and the BOJ

Global central bank policy remains in flux as persistent inflation and geopolitical instability drive aggressive monetary tightening. In the United States, elevated August CPI data necessitates a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate hike, with further increases anticipated in December. European markets face similar pres...

The Week Ahead - Back to School

The US labor market exhibits significant strength, with positive non-farm payroll data and upward revisions suggesting an economy capable of sustaining current interest rates. Although market pricing anticipates a September rate hike, Federal Reserve officials remain divided, with many favoring a hold contingent on coo...

The Week Ahead – Going down to Jackson

Global financial markets face heightened volatility driven by escalating US-Canada trade tensions, rising long-end bond yields, and persistent inflationary pressures. The US-Canada trade conflict, marked by retaliatory tariffs and potential auto sector disruptions, creates significant uncertainty for economic growth. S...

The Week Ahead - Hole-ding Out for a Hero

Financial markets navigate a summer lull as attention shifts toward upcoming central bank policy decisions and geopolitical developments. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s anticipated Jackson Hole speech likely focuses on his intellectual framework rather than immediate policy shifts, supported by benign inflation an...

The Week Ahead – Light on data and low on clarity

Global markets navigate a landscape defined by persistent geopolitical uncertainty and the dual forces of AI-driven growth and cooling inflation. Recent US CPI data suggests a potential shift toward a patient, wait-and-see approach from the Federal Reserve, while China faces a K-shaped economic recovery characterized b...

The Week Ahead - Up and Down

Global financial markets face a week of critical economic data and central bank policy decisions, with sentiment oscillating between AI-driven optimism and geopolitical tensions. In the United States, core CPI and retail sales figures remain central to the Federal Reserve’s outlook, which currently favors holding rates...

The Week Ahead – Mr Un-credible?

Global financial markets face heightened volatility following central bank meetings in the U.S., U.K., and Japan. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s recent press conference introduced uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve’s reaction function and commitment to inflation targets, triggering a twist-steepening of the U.S. yield ...

The Week Ahead – Managing a Litany of Risks

Global financial markets face heightened volatility as re-escalating Middle East tensions and surging energy prices dampen investor sentiment. Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the ECB, and the Bank of Japan, are maintaining cautious policy stances, prioritizing data-driven decision-making amidst significan...

The Week Ahead - The World Turns

Global financial markets face significant volatility driven by shifting central bank policies and political transitions. In Europe, the European Central Bank maintains a neutral stance ahead of potential September rate hikes, while the United Kingdom navigates a leadership change with a focus on fiscal sustainability. ...

The Week Ahead – Déjà vu?

Hostilities in the Middle East and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are driving oil price spikes and inflation concerns, prompting markets to recalibrate expectations for central bank rate hikes. US economic data shows resilient growth, with retail sales bolstered by vehicle sales and promotional events, while core CPI...