The Real Eisman Playbook

Anthropic’s Growth is Slowing: Is AI Capex Next? | The Weekly Wrap

Inflation, The Deficit & Why the Dollar Stays King with Benn Steil | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 81

AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap

Big Short Reunion w/ Danny Moses: Rising Rates, AI & Private Equity | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 80

The global financial landscape faces significant structural shifts driven by persistent inflation, rising interest rates, and the massive capital expenditure fueling the artificial intelligence sector. While AI innovation mirrors the 1999 fiber optic bubble in its intensity and concentration risk, the reliance on a few...

Market Cracks Under AI Debt Burden | The Weekly Wrap

The U.S. economy remains resilient, with large banks reporting benign credit quality despite growing concerns over private credit and AI-related debt. While the "telepocalypse" narrative surrounding telecom stocks appears overblown, the financial sector faces potential long-term disruption from agentic AI, which could ...

Gary Marcus on AI Doomsday Fears, Hacking, & the Fight for Control | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 79

The current AI landscape is defined by a significant gap between speculative existential risk narratives and the practical, technical limitations of existing systems. AI agents, while marketed as transformative, remain fundamentally unreliable and prone to security vulnerabilities, as evidenced by recent unauthorized h...

Q3 2026 Market Recap: Energy Up, Utilities Crushed, and Software Flipped | The Weekly Wrap

Economic stress is intensifying as mortgage rates hit 7.5% and distressed leveraged loans reach post-pandemic highs, with the technology sector holding the largest concentration of these risks. The S&P 500 has effectively become a single-theme trade centered on artificial intelligence, with over 65% of the index—includ...

5% Rates, Bessent's Failed Gamble & What Comes Next w/ Krishna Guha | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 78

Why Private Equity's Software Bet Is Going to Zero | The Weekly Wrap

Market volatility currently centers on rising interest rates and oil prices, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching levels not seen since 2002. FICO’s recent 25% stock decline highlights the fragility of its mortgage monopoly following the FHFA’s decision to adopt VantageScore, a move expected to accelerate competiti...

What the AI Boom Looks Like From Inside Cisco with Sam Badri | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 77

Cisco’s recent revenue growth acceleration from mid-single digits to 18% stems from a surge in demand for its networking hardware, particularly within the hyperscaler and data center segments. This shift reflects a broader industry trend where AI-driven token consumption necessitates massive infrastructure upgrades. Wh...

The Enron-Era Tricks Are Back in AI: How These Companies Are Hiding Their Debt | The Weekly Wrap

Market volatility currently hinges on the 10-year yield and oil prices, with a correction likely if yields sustain levels above 5%. Large tech companies, or "hyperscalers," are facing massive capital expenditure requirements for AI, forcing them to adopt aggressive off-balance sheet financing techniques. These special ...

Stock Picking in Difficult Times with George Noble | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 76

Why Dario Amodei and Sam Altman Are Faking the AI Doomsday Crisis | The Weekly Wrap

Market volatility remains high as the 10-year Treasury yield hovers around the 5% threshold, pressured by inflation fears and the crowding-out effect of massive AI-related debt issuance. The mortgage credit scoring landscape is shifting, with FICO’s long-standing monopoly eroding as VantageScore captures significant ma...

The Big Short Partners Reunite: Rates, AI, Gold and Two Stock Picks | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 75

U.S. fiscal policy faces a structural impasse where interest expenses and entitlements exceed tax receipts, forcing a reliance on monetary expansion that strengthens the investment case for gold. Massive capital expenditure in artificial intelligence, currently concentrated among a few hyperscalers and startups like Op...

AI Terminator Fears Grow & Rates Breach 4.9% | The Weekly Wrap

Rising long-term interest rates and the failure of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s bond-buying interventions signal potential instability for the real economy and equity markets. The current AI ecosystem faces significant risks, as its heavy reliance on OpenAI and Anthropic mirrors the vulnerabilities of the dot-com...

P&C Stocks Worth Owning: The AI Hedge with Ryan Tunis | The Real Eisman Playbook Episode 74

Property and Casualty (P&C) insurance functions as a distinct sector with cycles driven by loss estimation and pricing rather than broader economic trends. The personal lines market currently faces a rare soft cycle, exacerbated by industry-wide over-earning and the widespread adoption of Automatic Driver Assisted Devi...

Is OpenAI the Achilles’ Heel of the US Economy? | The Weekly Wrap

The US economy currently hinges on the massive capital expenditure of hyperscalers, which accounts for nearly half of projected GDP growth. This growth trajectory remains precarious, as it is fundamentally tethered to the financial stability of AI leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic. OpenAI’s recent struggles—marked by s...

The AI Trade, Rising Rates, and Why the Market Is Still Standing | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 73

Market volatility persists as investors grapple with the sustainability of massive AI-driven capital expenditures and a shifting Federal Reserve policy regime. Despite concerns over market concentration in hyperscalers and negative cash flows, the U.S. economy remains robust, defying expectations that higher interest r...

AI’s Achilles’ Heel: Why Everything Hinges on Anthropic & OpenAI | The Weekly Wrap

Market stability persists despite widespread economic anxiety, though the AI sector faces a critical "Achilles heel" regarding the heavy dependency of hyperscalers on OpenAI and Anthropic. If these LLM providers fail or trigger a price war, the entire AI infrastructure chain risks a significant reversal. While current ...

Private Credit's Clock is Ticking w/ Glenn Schorr & Ken Worthington | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 72