The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision. Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
The current market environment reflects a significant regime shift characterized by tightening financial conditions and a rotation toward slowing growth. Bond yields and oil prices have decoupled, with oil prices climbing due to depleted global inventories and geopolitical instability in the Strait of Hormuz, while bon...
Market volatility stems from a complex interplay between persistent inflation, shifting Fed policy, and the precarious nature of the AI-led growth trade. Although recent CPI and PPI prints exceeded expectations, bond yields rallied, indicating a significant shift in investor positioning and a potential cyclical peak in...
Current US bond yield surges reflect market expectations for a higher terminal Fed rate driven by robust nominal GDP growth, rather than fiscal or inflation fears. The US economy remains narrowly supported by massive hyperscaler AI capital expenditure, creating a K-shaped dynamic where tech thrives while housing and br...
The bond market is currently trapped in a "pain trade" characterized by rising yields and a lack of clear catalysts for a reversal. Veteran fixed-income trader DCP notes that the market has shifted from pricing in rate cuts to anticipating further hikes, driven by persistent inflationary pressures and massive fiscal de...
Unusually low realized correlation among S&P 500 stocks—currently trending between 5% and 15%—has suppressed index volatility and incentivized widespread dispersion trades. While this environment offers a carry-generating opportunity, it relies on thin margins of safety that leave investors vulnerable to a sudden, syst...
Market participants are navigating a high-stakes environment post-Labor Day, characterized by aggressive central bank interventions and persistent inflationary pressures. The Bank of Japan’s recent bond buyback expansion highlights the tension between political incentives to suppress yields and the bond market’s demand...
The "debasement trade" centers on protecting portfolios from the accelerating degradation of the U.S. dollar, driven by unsustainable fiscal deficits and government spending. Traditional 60-40 portfolios, being entirely fiat-denominated, lack essential hedges against this systemic erosion of purchasing power. Integrati...
Macroeconomic policy and market intervention dominate the current landscape as the Treasury attempts to suppress long-term yields through buybacks, drawing criticism from figures like Stan Druckenmiller. This strategy creates a circular logic where fiscal discipline is sacrificed to manage market volatility, reinforcin...
The global liquidity cycle is currently inflecting lower, signaling a transition from a "speculation" phase toward a period of market turbulence. Michael Howell of Cross Border Capital argues that liquidity, rather than geopolitics, remains the primary driver of financial markets. The current economic environment shows...
Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds joins Forward Guidance to analyze the economic impact of the Iran strike and potential closure of the Strait of Rameau, focusing on how this oil shock contrasts with those of 2022 and 2008. Elliott argues that the current savings-driven economy is more vulnerable than in 2022, when a hot ...
In this episode of Forward Guidance, Tyler Neville interviews Harris Kupperman of Praetorian Capital about the current state of the markets and Kupperman's feudalism thesis. Kupperman argues that the economy is being run for the benefit of the S&P and the asset-owning class, leaving the majority of the population behin...
In this pre-Thanksgiving episode of Forward Guidance, the hosts discuss the Federal Reserve's recent policy signaling, noting the market's whipsaw reaction to hawkish and dovish comments. They analyze systematic macro positioning, pension rebalancing, and the impact of these factors on market structure, highlighting th...
The Forward Guidance podcast episode analyzes NVIDIA's earnings and their implications for the AI sector, highlighting the shift towards bond issuance for funding AI CapEx and the differing risk profiles of credit versus equity investors. The discussion extends to macro charts, focusing on the relationship between nomi...
In this episode of Forward Guidance, the hosts analyze the current state of the markets, recent economic data, and the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. They express concerns about the potential for a market downturn, pointing to indicators such as tightening credit spreads, the overvaluation of tech stocks, and the ...
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