Monetary science reborn. Rediscovering the principles of currency. Putting central banks where they belong. Welcome to Eurodollar University, your place for all things modern money and monetary science. The YouTube channel for Jeff Snider, from here you can begin to investigate all the ways in which the global monetary system impacts you: economy, politics, investments and more.
Debt-fueled AI investment is colliding with the harsh reality of the credit cycle, as evidenced by Meta’s recent report of negative free cash flow alongside $825 billion in future spending commitments. This financial strain has triggered a surge in credit default swaps and weakened corporate bonds, signaling that inves...
The artificial intelligence sector currently exhibits classic bubble characteristics, driven by speculative capital and astronomical spending commitments that lack a clear path to profitability. Anthropic’s recent financial disclosures, including $80 billion in paper losses and nearly $750 billion in long-term spending...
US consumers are increasingly cutting back on discretionary spending, signaling a significant economic downturn that aggregate data often masks. While retail sales figures may appear resilient, they are frequently inflated by rising gasoline prices and temporary panic-buying of big-ticket items like automobiles. In rea...
The Census Bureau’s recent downward revision of retail sales by more than 5% since 2022 exposes the "resilient consumer" narrative as a fundamental misreading of economic reality. This massive adjustment, following a previous 2% revision, confirms that households have been grappling with declining purchasing power and ...
The bond market is rejecting the mainstream "higher for longer" inflation narrative, as evidenced by the recent rally in Treasuries following hot CPI and PPI reports. This reversal confirms that temporary September technical pressures—such as balance sheet constraints and Treasury drift—have faded, allowing underlying ...
The private credit crisis is rapidly evolving into a systemic downturn, shattering the narrative that risks remain contained within isolated funds. Public market indicators, specifically CCC junk bond spreads approaching 1,300 basis points and declining leveraged loan prices, confirm that credit stress is broadening ac...
The stock market faces a precarious outlook as the AI-driven bubble encounters significant headwinds from a shifting credit cycle. Legendary investors like Paul Tudor Jones and Michael Burry warn that current market conditions, characterized by extreme valuations and narrow breadth, mirror the instability preceding the...
The AI boom mirrors the dot-com bubble, characterized by speculative spending, creative accounting, and significant overcapacity. Despite massive capital expenditures on data centers and hardware, AI has yet to generate meaningful economic growth or job creation, leaving the financial system dangerously over-leveraged....
Iron ore prices, currently hovering at a four-year low, provide a more accurate diagnostic of the global economy than the speculative, AI-focused copper market. While investors fixate on future technological growth, iron ore’s decline reveals a fundamental weakening in physical demand across construction, machinery, an...
August consumer credit data reveals a seemingly paradoxical trend: a sharp decline in revolving credit alongside a surge in installment borrowing. This behavior is not contradictory but stems from a shared sense of deteriorating affordability and economic insecurity. Households are cutting back on credit cards due to m...
Jamie Dimon’s recurring warnings regarding sticky inflation and rising interest rates often serve as a contrarian indicator for the bond market. While Dimon publicly predicts higher rates, historical data from 2018, 2002, and 2007 shows these warnings frequently coincide with market turning points where yields subseque...
The credit cycle is entering a definitive downturn, evidenced by surging redemption requests at private credit giants like Blue Owl and mounting weakness across the banking sector. Despite industry insistence on resilience, market participants are increasingly skeptical, as shown by the KBW Bank Index’s decline and ris...
The September payroll report confirms a fragile labor market, exposing the inaccuracy of the Federal Reserve’s "resilient" narrative. While monthly fluctuations often trigger optimistic headlines, the long-term trend reveals a 9.7 million job deficit relative to the 2010s baseline, signaling a persistent "forgot-how-to...
Rising credit spreads are flashing a warning sign as risk aversion migrates from the junkiest credit tiers into the investment-grade market, signaling a potential shift in the broader economic landscape. This trend, coupled with the "September cubed" effect—a confluence of seasonal liquidity bottlenecks and recurring c...
McDonald’s recent financial struggles and lowered sales outlook signal a deeper, systemic economic crisis rather than a mere corporate failure. Despite its reputation for affordability, the chain is losing customers who lack the disposable income to keep pace with rising costs. This disconnect highlights a broader econ...
Rising energy and input costs are forcing companies like Pepsi to abandon price cuts, signaling a deepening economic squeeze that contradicts recent optimistic retail and PMI data. While businesses initially interpreted surges in purchasing as signs of a booming economy, this activity represents panic buying as consume...
The current Treasury yield curve, characterized by a steep front and a flat back, signals a profound disconnect between Federal Reserve policy and market expectations. This rare configuration—occurring only 5.4% of the time since 1990—indicates that while the Fed aggressively hikes rates to combat perceived inflation, ...
Currency valuations are fundamentally driven by mechanical dollar flows and commercial demand rather than the traditional textbook focus on interest rate differentials. Nations like India and Japan struggle to stabilize their currencies through rate hikes and market interventions because they remain trapped in a persis...
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