A New Explosive Threat in the Persian Gulf || Peter Zeihan

The introduction of limpet mine attacks by Iranian forces in the Persian Gulf threatens to collapse conventional commercial shipping in a region already burdened by complex crude oil transfer workarounds. These low-cost, deniable weapons—often deployed via simple speedboats or jet skis—target defenseless civilian vessels rather than hardened military assets, rendering traditional naval protection inadequate. To maintain operations, the global shipping industry faces a costly transition toward quasi-militarization, requiring onboard drone networks, armed security personnel, and specialized night-vision equipment. Because the Strait of Hormuz is narrow enough for small craft to navigate easily, the United States lacks the capacity to fully secure every commercial lane against such asymmetric tactics. Consequently, the rising insurance premiums and security requirements are poised to permanently alter the global shipping cost structure, particularly in volatile maritime zones where state-sponsored harassment is becoming the new norm.