Can Elections Change Geopolitics?

Global elections in Israel, Serbia, and Brazil highlight the disconnect between volatile internal political processes and the slow, structural evolution of the international system. While voters often personalize these events, national outcomes frequently stem from local economic and social tensions rather than external geopolitical forces. In Israel, the current political deadlock underscores deep societal divisions regarding the conduct of the war, with Arab parties emerging as a critical, unexpected pivot. Meanwhile, Serbia’s realignment away from Russia reflects a shift in European security dynamics, distinct from China’s investment-focused engagement in the region. Ultimately, the potential for peace in Ukraine remains constrained by internal Russian political realities; Putin’s inability to acknowledge the failure of his military campaign prevents meaningful concessions, rendering diplomatic summits largely ineffective in the face of his need to maintain domestic standing.