George Friedman on Trump’s “Betrayal” and Europe’s Inaction

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has reached a strategic stalemate where neither side possesses the military capability to achieve a decisive victory. While European nations frequently criticize American diplomatic pressure on Volodymyr Zelenskyy to negotiate, these critiques lack a viable military alternative, as no European power has committed ground troops to the conflict. The fundamental reality on the ground suggests that the war will likely conclude with neither side winning nor losing, rendering the continuation of hostilities increasingly purposeless. George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures, argues that the policy shift toward negotiation is an American institutional reality rather than a product of Donald Trump’s personality, noting that both the Biden and Trump administrations have faced the same limitations of power. Ultimately, the pressure for a deal stems from the assessment that Ukraine cannot drive out Russian forces, and those opposing a settlement must define a realistic path to total victory that they are currently unwilling to fund with their own military forces.