The Balance of AI Power: Anton Leicht on Politics, Pacing Deals, and Muddling Through Well

The political economy of artificial intelligence centers on the tension between rapid technological advancement and the necessity for effective governance. Anton Leicht, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argues that while current AI models pose limited immediate danger, the accelerating trend toward autonomous, misaligned agents necessitates a temporary scaling pause to establish robust safety protocols. Geopolitical competition, particularly between the United States and China, complicates this, as the U.S. remains unwilling to sacrifice its semiconductor and frontier model advantages. Meanwhile, middle powers like Europe, Australia, and Singapore must navigate a future of potential economic disempowerment by leveraging compute-for-access deals and strategic industrial assets. Ultimately, the path forward requires balancing the immense economic upside of AI with the preservation of institutional stability and the mitigation of existential risks posed by unconstrained, runaway systems.