The Bubble's Final Phase Has Begun.

The massive accumulation of debt by big tech companies to finance AI infrastructure is creating systemic risk in the credit market. Major firms like Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle have amassed nearly $3 trillion in AI-related debt, a figure surpassing the scale of both the dot-com bubble and the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. While the stock market remains at all-time highs, credit default swaps indicate rising bankruptcy concerns among lenders, signaling potential instability. The AI industry relies on a fragile financing loop between hyperscalers and labs like OpenAI and Anthropic, which depends on sustained capital inflows and widespread technology adoption. Historical patterns demonstrate that credit market stress often precedes stock market corrections and broader economic downturns, making liquidity and funding availability the critical variables to monitor for future market performance.