Nathan Goes to China #3: US-China Relations, the Art of the AI Deal & the Road to Pax Robotica

Achieving a "Pax Machina" between the United States and China is essential for ensuring global prosperity and safety in the AGI era. Rather than viewing China’s technological rise as a recent anomaly, it should be understood as a return to historical norms, rendering containment strategies ineffective. The US should shift from a zero-sum "win-at-all-costs" mentality toward collaborative governance, prioritizing shared AI paradigms and mutual prosperity. Current export controls and adversarial rhetoric exacerbate geopolitical tensions, hindering vital AI safety collaborations and increasing the risk of a destabilizing arms race. Instead, the US should leverage its cultural dynamism to foster state capacity with American characteristics, learn from China’s successes in infrastructure and manufacturing, and pursue joint research initiatives. This approach mitigates the risk of creating a new "AI sword of Damocles," ultimately securing a future where both nations share the benefits of rapid technological advancement.