Yields Explode, Fed To ‘Make A Big Blunder’ Hiking Into Oil Shock | David Rosenberg

The Federal Reserve risks a significant policy error by raising interest rates into a cooling 1.5% growth economy and an oil price shock. Current Treasury yield volatility stems primarily from a hawkish reset in Fed expectations under Chair Kevin Warsh, rather than fiscal deficits or debt concerns. The U.S. economy currently relies on a narrow two-pronged foundation—AI capital expenditure and the equity wealth effect—which masks widespread weakness in sectors like housing and non-tech industrial production. To navigate this environment, the ROSY ETF employs a barbell strategy, balancing short-duration fixed income with hard assets such as energy, base metals, and critical minerals. This approach provides a hedge against a secular bear market in the U.S. dollar, positioning investors to benefit from supply-side security themes while avoiding the risks associated with duration in the bond market.