Oil, Yields Surge Again: Expect Shortages, 'Much, Much Higher' Prices Next | Josh Young

Escalating conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and recent strikes on oil tankers have pushed WTI crude prices significantly higher, reflecting deep-seated concerns over global supply security. Josh Young, CIO of Bison Interests, highlights that the market faces a persistent undersupply of 5 to 10 million barrels per day, exacerbated by geopolitical instability and a lack of new drilling activity in the Persian Gulf. Beyond the immediate conflict, data quality issues at the EIA—specifically regarding inventory reporting—are fueling market volatility. While the U.S. government touts a new Venezuelan oil deal, its long-term production potential remains minimal, failing to offset current shortages. As diesel and jet fuel costs surge, the economy faces inflationary pressure, though consumer demand remains surprisingly resilient. The current environment suggests that oil prices will likely continue to rise as global storage levels deplete and refining margins shift.