Global Commodities: Miraculous recovery

The global oil market has demonstrated unexpected resilience and adaptability in the face of the largest supply disruption in modern history. Despite a loss of 1.9 billion barrels of Middle East crude between March and July 2026, Brent prices remained stable due to a sophisticated rebalancing mechanism. This stabilization was driven by a significant 0.8 billion barrel reduction in demand—particularly from China—and a record-breaking surge in non-OPEC supply growth, which reached 2.4 million barrels per day. The United States and Brazil led this expansion, contributing 0.9 and 0.8 million barrels per day respectively, while price-inelastic deepwater projects in Guyana further bolstered volumes. With U.S. break-even costs averaging $48 per barrel and major Brazilian platforms like Búzios 8 starting ahead of schedule, non-OPEC production continues to cushion global balances, offsetting geopolitical risks in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.