Matthew Smith — How America Runs Out of Natural Gas by 2030 - [Invest Like the Best, EP.483]

The United States faces a looming, historic natural gas supply deficit by 2028, driven by the convergence of surging AI data center energy requirements and committed LNG exports. Matthew Smith, founder and CIO of Cronometer Partners, argues that current market complacency—rooted in a decade of gas abundance—ignores the reality that demand will soon outpace production and infrastructure capacity. This mismatch threatens to trigger a convex, unbounded rise in energy prices, potentially forcing a choice between domestic electricity affordability and international export obligations. While large-scale nuclear power represents the most viable long-term solution to bridge this gap, the immediate outlook remains precarious. Without significant investment in infrastructure and a shift toward more resilient power strategies, the U.S. risks a structural energy crisis that could fundamentally alter the cost structure of hyperscale computing and consumer utility bills.