Global Data Pod Weekender: One-and-a-half-handed economists

Global economic growth is showing signs of building momentum, supported by resilient consumer spending and robust capital expenditure, particularly in the tech sector. While energy price risks and potential fiscal impulses in the U.S. warrant caution, current data suggests a stronger-than-expected cyclical lift. The labor market remains a critical variable, with wage growth and job numbers serving as linchpins for future central bank policy decisions. China’s economic outlook remains complex, characterized by weak domestic demand despite recent policy shifts and a heavy reliance on external markets. Inflation trajectories, specifically the divergence between core CPI and core PCE, continue to influence the Federal Reserve's gradual approach to interest rate adjustments. Overall, the global economy is transitioning from a period of resilience to one of potentially material strength, provided that inflationary pressures and energy shocks remain contained.