Global Data Pod: Growth upsides, Hormuz relapse, ECB pause and a new UK PM

Western European economic growth shows unexpected resilience despite ongoing energy price shocks and persistent inflationary pressures. Recent data, including improved PMI readings and stronger-than-expected industrial production, suggest that households are smoothing consumption more effectively than previously anticipated. In the UK, GDP growth tracks at approximately 1.5% annualized for the second quarter, significantly outperforming initial stagnant forecasts. However, renewed volatility in natural gas prices threatens to keep inflation elevated through next summer, complicating the Bank of England's rate path. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank remains on hold, likely waiting until September for further policy adjustments while maintaining a measured, data-dependent stance. The transition to a new UK government introduces fiscal uncertainty, though near-term growth projections remain largely unchanged as the focus shifts toward potential long-term public investment strategies rather than immediate policy shifts.