Surpluses in 2025 are expected to widen further into 2026 and 2027, as global oil supply is projected to outpace demand—expanding at three times the rate of demand growth through 2026, before slowing to about one-third of that pace in 2027. This dynamic is likely to exert downward pressure on oil prices. However, the magnitude suggested by market imbalances is unlikely to fully materialize in practice. Adjustments are expected on both the supply and demand sides; however, the greatest burden of rebalancing will almost certainly fall on supply.

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Greg Shearer, Head of Base Precious Metals Research

This podcast was recorded on December 12, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5120230-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: Oil Outlook 2026/2027—Heavy Lifting

At Any Rate

Global Commodities: Oil Outlook 2026/2027—Heavy Lifting