Just how bad are these job numbers?

The U.S. labor market is undergoing a structural shift where traditional benchmarks for "good" job growth no longer apply due to a shrinking working-age population. This "break-even" jobs number—the monthly gain required to keep unemployment steady—has plummeted from roughly 200,000 to potentially the low tens of thousands. This demographic contraction is driven by an aging population and a significant rise in people leaving the country, exemplified by the story of Alessandro Negrete. After four decades in the U.S., Negrete, a skilled professional, relocated to Mexico to escape the "mental anguish" of intensified immigration enforcement. His departure illustrates the loss of human capital and innovation potential facing the American economy. While economists debate the trade-offs between population growth and infrastructure costs, the current trend of voluntary departures and lower birth rates suggests a future of lower job growth targets and a tighter labor supply.