The biggest global risks for 2026 | Ian Bremmer | TED Talks Daily

Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, discusses the top global risks for 2026, focusing on a U.S. political revolution under Trump, the "Donroe doctrine," and Europe's vulnerability. Bremmer details the extraction of Maduro from Venezuela, highlighting Trump's focus on personal vendettas over strategic planning, and the implications of the U.S. asserting dominance in the Western Hemisphere. He introduces the concepts of "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) and "FAFO" (Fuck Around and Find Out) to explain Trump's foreign policy approach, noting how different countries react to his unilateralism. Bremmer also addresses Russia's escalating aggression against NATO and the potential for conflict, while expressing hope that the current crisis could lead to positive change through AI and citizen engagement.

Outlines

Part 1: The Venezuela Operation

Part 2: The Donroe Doctrine

Part 3: America's Political Revolution

Part 4: Europe and Russia Risks

Part 5: China, Taiwan, and Future Outlook

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The biggest global risks for 2026 | Ian Bremmer

TED Talks Daily

Part 1: The Venezuela Operation

Ian Bremmer's 2026 Global Risk Assessment: Starting with Venezuela

The Success and Implications of Maduro's Extraction by the U.S. Military

Trump's Motivations and the Limited Planning for Venezuela's Future

Regime Roulette: The Unplanned Governance After Maduro's Removal

Part 2: The Donroe Doctrine

Trump's Strategy: Shock and Awe in Venezuela

Trump's Wish List for Venezuela and Delcy Rodriguez's Response

Potential U.S. Actions and the Donroe Doctrine in Venezuela

The Donroe Doctrine: America First in the Western Hemisphere

Expanding the Donroe Doctrine: Colombia, Mexico, and Greenland

Denmark's Resistance and the TACO vs. FAFO Spectrum

Part 3: America's Political Revolution

Europe's FAFO Status and America's Political Revolution

The Roots and Drivers of America's Political Revolution

Comparing America's Revolution to China and Gorbachev's Revolutions

Stabilizing Forces and Policies Supporting Political Revolution in the U.S.

Resistance to Trump's Revolution: Courts, Military, and Federal System

Part 4: Europe and Russia Risks

Europe Under Siege: The Failure of the Transatlantic Bet

Europe's Challenges: Russia, the U.S., and Internal Divisions

The Consequences of Europe's Failure: Division and Loss of Influence

Russia's Second Front: Escalation Against NATO

Asymmetric Attacks and the Risk of NATO Involvement

Part 5: China, Taiwan, and Future Outlook

Taiwan's Absence from the Risk Report and China-U.S. Relations

Trump's Approach to Taiwan and Regional Dynamics

Hope Amidst Crisis: The Need for Change and the Power of AI

Optimism vs. Hope: The Agency of Human Beings

The biggest global risks for 2026 | Ian Bremmer

TED Talks Daily

Part 1: The Venezuela Operation

00:41Ian Bremmer's 2026 Global Risk Assessment: Starting with Venezuela

Ian Bremmer's 2026 Global Risk Assessment: Starting with Venezuela

02:33The Success and Implications of Maduro's Extraction by the U.S. Military

The Success and Implications of Maduro's Extraction by the U.S. Military

04:40Trump's Motivations and the Limited Planning for Venezuela's Future

Trump's Motivations and the Limited Planning for Venezuela's Future

07:20Regime Roulette: The Unplanned Governance After Maduro's Removal

Regime Roulette: The Unplanned Governance After Maduro's Removal

Part 2: The Donroe Doctrine

09:21Trump's Strategy: Shock and Awe in Venezuela

Trump's Strategy: Shock and Awe in Venezuela

10:46Trump's Wish List for Venezuela and Delcy Rodriguez's Response

Trump's Wish List for Venezuela and Delcy Rodriguez's Response

12:39Potential U.S. Actions and the Donroe Doctrine in Venezuela

Potential U.S. Actions and the Donroe Doctrine in Venezuela

14:36The Donroe Doctrine: America First in the Western Hemisphere

The Donroe Doctrine: America First in the Western Hemisphere

15:52Expanding the Donroe Doctrine: Colombia, Mexico, and Greenland

Expanding the Donroe Doctrine: Colombia, Mexico, and Greenland

18:16Denmark's Resistance and the TACO vs. FAFO Spectrum

Denmark's Resistance and the TACO vs. FAFO Spectrum

Part 3: America's Political Revolution

23:03Europe's FAFO Status and America's Political Revolution

Europe's FAFO Status and America's Political Revolution

24:42The Roots and Drivers of America's Political Revolution

The Roots and Drivers of America's Political Revolution

26:23Comparing America's Revolution to China and Gorbachev's Revolutions

Comparing America's Revolution to China and Gorbachev's Revolutions

28:24Stabilizing Forces and Policies Supporting Political Revolution in the U.S.

Stabilizing Forces and Policies Supporting Political Revolution in the U.S.

30:45Resistance to Trump's Revolution: Courts, Military, and Federal System

Resistance to Trump's Revolution: Courts, Military, and Federal System

Part 4: Europe and Russia Risks

33:34Europe Under Siege: The Failure of the Transatlantic Bet

Europe Under Siege: The Failure of the Transatlantic Bet

35:41Europe's Challenges: Russia, the U.S., and Internal Divisions

Europe's Challenges: Russia, the U.S., and Internal Divisions

37:01The Consequences of Europe's Failure: Division and Loss of Influence

The Consequences of Europe's Failure: Division and Loss of Influence

40:40Russia's Second Front: Escalation Against NATO

Russia's Second Front: Escalation Against NATO

42:42Asymmetric Attacks and the Risk of NATO Involvement

Asymmetric Attacks and the Risk of NATO Involvement

Part 5: China, Taiwan, and Future Outlook

45:09Taiwan's Absence from the Risk Report and China-U.S. Relations

Taiwan's Absence from the Risk Report and China-U.S. Relations

46:38Trump's Approach to Taiwan and Regional Dynamics

Trump's Approach to Taiwan and Regional Dynamics

48:23Hope Amidst Crisis: The Need for Change and the Power of AI

Hope Amidst Crisis: The Need for Change and the Power of AI

51:36Optimism vs. Hope: The Agency of Human Beings

Optimism vs. Hope: The Agency of Human Beings