Every time I post about demographic decline, I get about a hundred replies insisting that the cause of demographic decline is actually extremely obvious — so obvious that only an imbecile (or a subversive!) would even wonder about it.

“It’s the dating apps, retard” -- or it’s birth control, or it’s women working, or it’s women voting, or it’s mass immigration, or it’s the cost of housing, or it’s the population density, or it’s the propaganda, etc.

Then, if the post really goes viral, I get feminists and libs saying it’s the cost of daycare, or student loans, or the expense of pregnancy, or the critical shortage of Good Men.

But virtually all of these arguments has a conclusive disproof in some modern country, where the commenter’s hobby-horse is not a problem, but birth rates are still well below replacement.

Of course, that’s not to say that none of it matters — everything goes in the pot — but none of these problems, in isolation, explains our predicament.

The most extreme proof of this is Rome and Sparta, whose social pathologies, even at the latest stage, didn’t neatly map to the modern culture war — but they still lost the ability to inspire young citizens to raise families, and were eventually overrun by more vital and fertile peoples.

Alex Petkas is a classicist and founder of the Cost of Glory Podcast — we brought him on to discuss the family structures of ancient Sparta and Rome, their struggles with declining population, and what they did to reverse the trend.

The decline of family formation, in these cases, is something like dying of old age — a confluence of social sicknesses that piles up until the society can no longer perform the basic task of perpetuating itself.

“It is not the one thing.”

With that understanding, “solving the birth rate” is not a narrow policy issue, and it won’t be corrected by tweaking the incentives or nibbling around the edges: it requires transforming our relationship to our families, society, and the state. That’s what we have to come together to do.

Alex will be joining us to deliver a deeper treatment of the subject at NatalCon 2025 — joining 30 other speakers with a wide range of perspective and expertise.

Get your ticket today at natalism.org.

Couples/+1 Tickets

If you’ve been thinking of bringing a spouse or friend to NatalCon, we’re rolling out special plus-one pricing — select “Two Ticket Special” with offer code COSTOFGLORY to get two tickets for $1,620.

We will also have childcare available for both the dinner Friday night, and the full conference on Saturday, so parents with small children can make it a night out.

Ticket holders also receive:

* Free copies of Hannah’s Children by Catherine Pakaluk, Domestic Extremist by Peachy Keenan, Creating Future People by Jonny Anomaly, and The Pragmatist’s Guide series by Malcolm and Simone Collins

* Discounted rooms at the AT&T Conference Center (until rooms are sold out)

* Access to attendee networking directory

* Pre-event virtual meet-and-greet with speakers

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How Birth Rate Collapse Killed Sparta and Rome

EXIT Podcast (private feed for joe.substack@hootman.org)