David Kilcullen is one of the world’s foremost experts in counterinsurgency and unconventional warfare.

He served for 25 years as an infantry officer in the Australian Army, then with the U.S. State Department, where he was chief strategist in the Counterterrorism Bureau, Senior Counterinsurgency Advisor to Multi-National Force Iraq, and Senior Advisor for Counterinsurgency to the U.S. Secretary of State. He has written The Accidental Guerrilla, Counterinsurgency, Out of the Mountains, Blood Year, and The Dragons and the Snakes.

We discuss:

* How Trump’s election has altered the trajectory of the empire. Will he take the reins and strengthen American hegemony, or repudiate it?

* How China’s demographic issues accelerate the timetable for a confrontation with the US over Taiwan — but may also make them less willing to risk a war (70% of the PLA are only-children in a nation with no old-age safety net.)

* How China is carefully monitoring (and encouraging) America’s ongoing immiseration and demoralization through propaganda, trade war, and human and drug trafficking.

* How the Houthis use inexpensive saturation attacks to exhaust US Navy countermeasures and maintain their blockade of the Red Sea.

* Why the Assad regime collapsed over a ten-day period last month — the geopolitical circumstances that gave Hayat Tahrir al-Sham space to act, and what they built while they waited for the right time to strike.

It looks to me like the Trump Administration is attempting to lead a transnational revolution across the various client states of the empire — drying up the flow of money to puppet governments, and forcing the emergence of a looser, more transactional coalition.

It isn’t just that Americans are tired of empire — Trump voters increasingly identify the empire as a foreign occupation, and themselves as a not-particularly-favored client. Besides which, it’s unclear whether a global naval empire could be maintained by any nation, now that $10,000 drones have rendered $2B aircraft carriers obsolete.

What all this means for us is that global supply chains are going away, either through orderly, deliberate industrial policy, or through war and catabolic collapse. The only real question is who’s going to get paid to rebuild the factories, and when.

EXIT has the engineering and operations talent — our project for 2025 is to build a fund that will draw capital into these new enterprises and retrain our guys to build in the real world.

Meanwhile, the societies that cannot inspire their people to raise families will face economic stagnation and collapse — especially China, America, the EU, Japan, and Korea. We are hosting Natal Conference to connect with like-minded people and build the systems that will bring our families through the bottleneck.

The tea leaves aren’t that hard to read here.

There are clear actions you can take to prepare your family and your tribe for what is coming: the most important of which is to connect with like-minded friends are start building.

Join us at exitgroup.us.

EXIT News:

* On last week’s full-group call (2/11), we heard from Lomez on leadership through art and aesthetics. Recording available soon to paid subscribers.

* Last night (2/18), we had an EXIT State of the Union:

* Discussion of our growing list of expert-led calls in real estate, investing, AI, ham radio, homeschooling, etc.

* Updates on NatalCon planning, member discounts on tickets, and requests for volunteers.

* Details on the new investment fund.

* On next Tuesday’s full-group call (2/25) we will hear from Nate Fischer and Santiago Pliego from New Founding, on their venture fund, talent network, and real estate project in Gainesboro, Tennessee.

* Dallas Meetup was Monday night (2/17) — we met for lunch at EXIT’s space at The Hightower, New Founding’s new co-work, then dinner and cocktails at an undisclosed location. The D/FW guys get together once a month — I will be there at least every quarter.

* Cocktail hour invites for Salt Lake City (3/1) and Seattle (3/8) available here below the paywall. EXIT cocktail hours are a great way to get to know the EXIT guys in your area and see if the group is right for you.

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David Kilcullen on China, Syria, & the Future of the Empire

EXIT Podcast (private feed for joe@hootman.org)