Disclaimer: To avoid harmful polarization of important topics, this post is written in a non-partisan manner, and I’d encourage comments to be written with this in mind.

US presidential elections are surprisingly tractable

US presidential elections are often extremely close.
1. Biden won the last election by 42,918 combined votes in three swing states. Trump won the election before that by 77,744 votes. 537 votes in Florida decided the 2000 election.
There's a good chance the 2024 election will be very close too.
1. Trump leads national polling by around 1% nationally, and polls are tighter than they were the last two elections. If polls were perfectly accurate (which of course, they aren’t), the tipping point state would be Pennsylvania or Michigan, which are currently at +1-2% for Trump.
There is still low-hanging fruit. Estimates for how effectively top RCT-tested interventions to generate net swing-state votes this election range from a few [...]

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Outline:

(00:19) US presidential elections are surprisingly tractable

(03:01) Much more important than other elections

(04:19) Urgency

(05:18) Questions worth considering

(06:07) Getting Involved

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First published:
May 29th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/n8vWQ6c6ezxdKAJgz/us-presidential-election-tractability-importance-and-urgency

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“US Presidential Election: Tractability, Importance, and Urgency” by kuhanj

LessWrong (30+ Karma)