Notes on the Week Ahead

The Investment Implications of Shrinking the Fed’s Balance Sheet

How Will It End?

An Updated Outlook for the U.S. Economy

The Investment Implications of the Tariff Decision

Detangling Solution for the Economic Outlook

Real Economy Challenges

The Federal Reserve – New Leadership, Same Landscape

The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair signals a potential shift toward a more restricted central bank mandate, yet current economic conditions provide little justification for the aggressive interest rate cuts desired by the administration. Real GDP growth remains robust at above-trend levels, and whil...

The Direction of the Fed

The Federal Reserve faces a pivotal week as it balances interest rate decisions against unprecedented threats to its institutional independence. While the FOMC is expected to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, the primary focus shifts to a legal and political standoff involving Chairman Jay Powell and the exec...

International Equities: Looking Beneath the Currency Icing

The podcast examines the potential outperformance of international stocks compared to their U.S. counterparts in 2026. It suggests that while Americans favor domestic stocks, international equities offer compelling opportunities due to solid economic growth, lower interest rates, and converging earnings growth. The Eur...

A Baseline Forecast for 2026

Why Stocks are Outperforming the Economy

Forecasting the Fed’s Forecasts

In this J.P. Morgan Asset Management podcast, Chief Strategist David Kelly discusses the upcoming FOMC meeting and its potential impact on interest rates. He notes the shifting market expectations for a rate cut, influenced by Fed communications and economic data. Kelly reviews economic projections for growth, unemploy...

The Outlook for Autos

The Health of the Consumer

Why a 1:13 expansion feels like a 1:20 recession

In this episode of "Notes on the Week Ahead," David Kelly discusses the divergence between economic reality and public perception in late 2025. Despite overall economic growth and rising consumer spending, many Americans feel financially worse off, influenced by factors like social media, political polarization, and th...

The Importance of Navigation in the Dark

Oil, Inflation and the Fed: The Slide and the Rollercoaster

Going Broke Slowly: The Investment Implications of Still-Rising Federal Debt

Dr. David Kelly, Chief Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, discusses the challenging environment for long-term investors in 2025, likening it to a football placekicker facing numerous distractions. He highlights the constant news barrage, government shutdown, global conflicts, and high valuations in large-cap U...

The Investment Implications of the Government Shutdown

Dr. David Kelly, Chief Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, discusses the ongoing government shutdown as of October 6th, 2025, noting that markets appear unconcerned despite the negative implications for the economy. He outlines three main problems: the direct economic drag from furloughed workers and contract d...

Checking the Foundations of a Roaring Bull Market

In this episode of Notes on the Week Ahead, David Kelly reflects on the current state of the U.S. stock market, drawing parallels to the market's low point during the 2009 financial crisis. He discusses the significant growth of the market since the 1980s, attributing it to factors beyond economic growth, such as a ris...