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The current global energy supply shock, catalyzed by conflict with Iran, is deviating from historical precedents as the U.S. economy and credit markets demonstrate unexpected resilience. While WTI oil prices have surged 25% since February, investment-grade credit spreads remain flat and Treasury yields continue to rise...
The Federal Reserve is shifting its policy focus from the theoretical neutral interest rate—often called R-star—toward broader, observable financial conditions. This transition reflects the inherent difficulty in estimating R-star, which remains unobservable and subject to wide, uncertain confidence intervals. By monit...
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