Excess Returns

The Base Case is Wrong | Paul Eitelman on AI, Reacceleration and the Pause No One Sees

Nothing Has a Right to Exist in Your Portfolio | What the Last 15 Years Has Taught Us

The Existential Spending Battle | Adrian Helfert on What You’re Missing in the AI Arms Race

The Bureau of Missing Children | Ben Hunt and Adam Butler on the Broken Math of the American Dream

The Alpha No Human Can Find | David Wright on Machine Learning's Hidden Edge

The Wall Street Labels That Trap You: Chris Mayer & Robert Hagstrom on How Language Misleads Markets

Magnet Above. Trap Door Below | Inside the Options Flows Driving Markets with Brent Kochuba

He Was Overweight Tech for 15 Years. He Just Downgraded the Mag Seven | Ed Yardeni Explains Why

Why Most Investors Won't Buy the Best Diversifier | Andrew Beer on Managed Futures

The Single Most Important Metric | Matt Reustle on the Patterns That Separate Great Businesses

The Water No One Can See | Graeme Foerster on Six Courageous Questions for 2026

The Thunderclap That Ends the Cycle | Jim Grant on the Risk No One Sees

The Fed Is Fighting the Wrong War | Jim Paulsen on Why 3% Inflation Isn't the Problem

The One Lesson | 50+ Great Investors Share the One Thing They Would Teach You

World War AI | Ben Hunt on the Economic Consequences of the AI Boom

The Real Estate Bust Was the Plan | Louis-Vincent Gave on China's Brute Force Growth Strategy

The Pattern Is Staggering | Mary Ann Bartels on Why This Bull Market Is Just Getting Started

The Risk Isn't Where You Think | Carl Kaufman on AI Capex, Private Credit and the Hidden Bond Play

The Bubble You Can't Short | Rob Arnott on What You Can Do Instead

In this episode of Excess Returns, Rob Arnott discusses market bubbles, drawing parallels to the dot-com era and highlighting the implausible growth assumptions often required to justify current prices. He emphasizes that bubbles are asset-specific and driven by narratives rather than discounted cash flow models, using...

The Bull Market Where Everyone Feels Broke | Behind the Rise of Financial Nihilism