Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Milton Berg: I Have Evidence Market Has Likely Bottomed | Why Milton’s Long Semis, Korea, Nasdaq, and More (With Caveats), and Why He Thinks Gold has made a Multi-year Top

Market technician Milton Berg utilizes data-driven analysis to identify turning points in global equity markets, prioritizing historical statistical rarities over subjective chart patterns. Currently positioned 100% long, the strategy relies on a series of buy signals generated in March and April, alongside a significa...

Misunderstood Stocks in Data Center Power, Cybersecurity, and Payments | Dean & Deiya Pernas

Investment success in the current market requires navigating the massive capital outlays of hyperscalers toward AI infrastructure. The rise of open-weight models commoditizes frontier AI labs, shifting value toward cloud providers and the underlying energy and bandwidth infrastructure. Data centers face severe power co...

Victor Haghani on Death of Random Walk, and Passive, Buybacks, and LTCM

The stock market’s volatility and behavior defy classical random walk theories, driven instead by a heterogeneous mix of investor types. Extrapolators—who chase returns based on recent performance—and static asset allocators, who maintain fixed portfolio weights regardless of market conditions, exert significant influe...

Why Macro is “Pretty Risk-On” for Equities | Tian Yang of Variant Perception

The current market environment remains in a "risk-on" regime, supported by stable growth and liquidity, despite recent volatility in AI-linked semiconductor stocks. While the initial narrative surrounding agentic AI has exhausted, leading to a period of potential stagnation for high-growth tech, equity markets are broa...

Mum’s The Word: Kathryn Rooney Vera on Fed’s Second Meeting under Kevin Warsh, Plus Earnings Breakdown (Live Replay)

The Federal Reserve’s transition toward a less interventionist communication strategy shifts the burden of price discovery onto the bond market, increasing volatility and uncertainty. This new environment necessitates a focus on productivity gains, particularly through widespread AI adoption, to absorb inflationary pre...

Luke Gromen: Yield Curve Control is the Only Way to Stop a Global Bond Crisis

The global bond market faces a structural crisis driven by unsustainable sovereign debt levels, aging demographics, and mounting off-balance-sheet liabilities like veterans' benefits. As the US, UK, and Japan struggle with debt-to-GDP ratios exceeding 125%, traditional monetary policy tools become ineffective, forcing ...

Debt Service Coverage in Private Markets Is Improving, Actually | Nicholas Brooks

Private credit does not pose a systemic threat to the global economy, as corporate balance sheets remain robust and interest coverage ratios have stabilized following recent central bank rate cuts. While geopolitical volatility and inflation have pressured margins, underlying EBITDA growth in private markets remains re...

Interest Rates to 10%: Why the Treasury Market is the Real Speculative Bubble (Not AI) | Russell Clark

The global economy is transitioning from a four-decade era of pro-capital, deflationary policies toward a pro-labor, inflationary environment characterized by rising wages and higher interest rates. Hedge fund manager Russell Clark posits that the US Treasury market faces significant risks as foreign demand for soverei...

Nick Nemeth: Private Credit Will Blow-up Insurance System | Immense Leverage, Shaky Loans, and Retirement System That Actually Does Have Run Risk (via Surrenders)

Private credit faces a systemic crisis comparable to 1929, driven by excessive leverage and opaque risk management within the insurance sector. Financial researcher Nick Nemeth argues that private equity firms have transformed insurance companies into high-leverage investment vehicles, holding over $1 trillion in priva...

Turbo Charged Trend Following: Why Capturing the Market’s Biggest Trends Means Embracing High Volatility | Moritz Seibert & Moritz Heiden | Takahe Capital

Trend-following strategies operate by capturing outlier market moves across a diverse portfolio, where successful, long-duration trades offset the frequent, small losses inherent in the process. Position sizing outweighs entry timing in importance, requiring a disciplined approach that allows winning trades to run with...

The Semiconductor Earnings Boom Is Just Getting Started | Ben Pouladian on why AI is Real, Nvidia is Mispriced, and Capacitors Are Overrated

The semiconductor industry is currently undergoing a structural transformation driven by the shift from classical computing to high-performance AI, where intelligence creation replaces data transmission as the primary value driver. Unlike the dot-com bubble, which relied on commoditized fiber infrastructure, the curren...

Breaking Down the Multi-Manager Playbook: How This $19B CIO Thinks About Alpha | Sean McGould | The Lighthouse Group

Hedge fund strategies serve as vital tools for institutional investors to manage liabilities and reduce correlation in increasingly volatile global markets. Sean McGould, CEO and CIO of Lighthouse Group, highlights how regulatory reforms in Japan and South Korea—such as revised corporate governance codes and value-up p...

The Ultimate Playbook for Reducing The Fed’s Balance Sheet | Professor Darrell Duffie on 4 Tools For Federal Reserve To Shrink Reserve Demand In Banking System

The Real Estate Cycle Is Turning | Josh Pristaw on The New Cycle in Real Estate, Opportunity in Senior Living, Why AI Data Centers Are Too Big For Most Investors

What If It’s Still Early? | Erik YWR on $10,000 S&P 500 by 2027 Case, Hyperscaler ROIC, AI CapEx, Semis, Exchanges, and Reverse Crash Risk In “Project Zimbabwe”

The S&P 500 is poised for significant long-term growth, potentially reaching 10,000 as accelerating earnings and persistent inflation drive nominal asset prices higher. Veteran fund manager Erik argues that the current market environment mirrors historical inflationary periods where asset prices rise despite widespread...

Top IPO Scholar on Unprecedented IPO Wave & Why IPOs Underperform the Market | Jay Ritter

Rothschilds, Railroads, & Ruin | Liaquat Ahamed on “1873” (New Book!)

Inside The Platform Helping to Invest Like Substack & FinTwit's Top Researchers | Plutus

Ed Zitron: The AI Bubble is Bleeding Cash, Here Are The Receipts

Jim Chanos & Val Zlatev: Long and Short Alpha in AI, Semiconductors, Data Centers, Neoclouds, and Data Centers | MacroMinds Symposium 2026

The AI boom presents a complex investment landscape characterized by massive capital expenditure and significant valuation disparities. While semiconductor companies benefit from high demand and supply constraints, the long-term profitability of AI remains unproven, mirroring historical patterns of technological hype. ...