METR Chief of Staff Parv Mahajan breaks down their new report assessing AI R&D acceleration inside Anthropic. He discusses finding a sustained 2x acceleration since late 2025, why public models hide this kink, the absence of near-term training compute bottlenecks, and why Anthropic likely crossed its own acceleration warning threshold. Check out our sponsor Lovable: https://lovable.dev. Turn ideas into software people love.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:53) What the Report Found

(03:12) Evidence for Hyperbolic Growth

(06:51) Near-Term Scaling Bottlenecks

(08:19) Shifting Personal AGI Timelines

(09:30) Anthropic’s Acceleration Warning Threshold

(12:07) Interpreting 10X Uplift Polls

(13:27) What the Public Should Know

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Did Anthropic Cross Its RSI Warning Line? | Parv Mahajan

MTS

Did Anthropic Cross Its RSI Warning Line? | Parv Mahajan