PLAN B: Counterinsurgency expert David Kilcullen on how to defend Australia without submarines

The AUKUS submarine program faces significant delivery risks, necessitating a strategic "Plan B" to ensure Australia’s defense capabilities. David Kilcullen, a noted expert in War Studies, examines the potential for failure in Pillar One, driven by U.S. shipbuilding constraints and complex political certification requirements. Submarines provide unique, persistent, long-range maritime strike and sea denial capabilities that remain difficult to replicate with existing assets like land-based air power or surface vessels. While alternatives such as expanded missile inventories, uncrewed platforms like the Ghost Shark, or a return to conventional submarine designs offer partial solutions, they involve substantial trade-offs in capacity, cost, and operational timing. Given the narrowing warning window for potential regional conflict, the current reliance on long-term acquisition projects creates a critical timing disconnect that demands immediate, prudent hedging strategies to maintain national security.