“Very high risk” Trump will escalate Iran war after midterms | The Economist

The risk of renewed kinetic attacks on Iran is escalating significantly following the U.S. midterms, driven by a convergence of political incentives in Washington and Jerusalem. Benjamin Netanyahu may favor military action to secure a unity government and delay his potential loss of power, while the U.S. administration debates whether to continue a corrosive naval blockade or pursue a high-intensity strike to force Tehran to the negotiating table. However, a sharp rise in oil prices toward $120 a barrel remains a primary deterrent for Donald Trump. In the Gulf, officials express fury over the instability, noting that Iranian leadership dangerously miscalculates that a Democratic victory in Congress could restrain presidential foreign policy. Despite previous bombing campaigns, Iran’s highly enriched uranium remains buried and intact, leaving Israel with what it considers unfinished business and no clear diplomatic endgame for the region.